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Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Matchup Preview - April 1st, 2023

The White Sox are scheduled to start Lucas Giolito (0-0, 0.00 ERA) against Astros starting pitcher Jose Urquidy (0-0, 0.00 ERA) on Saturday. This will be the first start of the season for both Giolito and Urquidy. Lucas Giolito recorded the win in his last outing, as the White Sox beat the Twins 8-3. He pitched 7 innings allowing 2 earned runs with 2 hits. He also recorded 4 strikeouts with 2 walks. The last time Jose Urquidy took the mound, he recorded a loss as the Astros got beat by the Orioles 0-6. He finished with 5.1 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, while allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits. Today, Giolito projects for 4.88 innings pitched with 2.9 ER, 5.0 hits, 4.8 strikeouts, and 2 walks, according to The Sharp Model. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Urquidy's average outcome to be 6.11 IP, 3.0 ER, 6.2 H, 5.2 strikeouts, and 1.2 walks.

Chicago White Sox Insights

  • Lucas Giolito’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (90.5 mph) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (92 mph).

  • The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Andrew Benintendi is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the entire game.

  • Tim Anderson has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.9%) and will be challenged by the game's 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Jose Urquidy (38% GB% via The Sharp Model projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Chicago's projected offense.

  • Jose Abreu has been unlucky with his home runs since the start of last season; his 13.20 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit lower than his 20.10 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • The Houston Astros have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the game since the start of last season, according to The Sharp Model X, and are likely to hit worse going forward

Betting Trends

  • Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Under in his last game (+1.30 Units / 130% ROI)