Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals Matchup Preview - August 16th, 2022

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2581 rpm) has been quite a bit better than than his seasonal rate (2480 rpm).

• The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Ortega has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Nick Madrigal has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Patrick Corbin has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 5.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Nelson Cruz has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 12.80 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit lower than his 21.10 Expected HR/600 (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• The Washington Nationals projected offense today (.287 projected wOBA via THE BAT X) projects quite a bit worse than their .302 wOBA this year.

Betting Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 64 of their last 111 games (+17.40 Units / 14% ROI)

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 58 games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)

• Victor Robles has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.05 Units / 37% ROI)