Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Matchup Preview - September 21st, 2022


The Chicago Cubs enter the game as the 9th ranked team per The Sharp Model X's Power Rankings and will battle the 7th ranked Marlins at LoanDepot Park. The Cubs rank 4th in MLB in steals and will likely lean on that speed in their attempt to win today. When the Marlins have found success this year, it's been through their speed. They rank 2nd in baseball in stolen bases.

Chicago Cubs Insights

  • Marcus Stroman's 2423 rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 90th percentile among starting pitchers.

  • Zach McKinstry has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

  • The Chicago Cubs projected batting order today (.292 projected wOBA according to The Sharp Model X) projects quite a bit worse than their .304 wOBA this year.

Miami Marlins Insights

  • The Sharp Model X projects Jesus Luzardo to throw 103 pitches in this game (5th-most of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  • The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so J.J. Bleday has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

  • The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the worst in the majors, according to THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.70 Units / 38% ROI)

  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 45% ROI)

  • Michael Hermosillo has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.75 Units / 37% ROI)