Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins Matchup Preview - September 20th, 2022


The Cubs are scheduled to start Adrian Sampson (2-5, 3.48 ERA) against Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (9-10, 3.99 ERA) on Tuesday. Adrian Sampson recorded the win in his last outing, as the Cubs beat the Mets 4-1. He pitched 6 innings allowing 0 earned runs with 2 hits. He also recorded 3 strikeouts with 4 walks. The last time Pablo Lopez took the mound, he recorded a win as the Marlins defeated the Phillies 5-3. He finished with 6.2 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, while allowing 2 earned runs on 4 hits. Today, Sampson projects for 5.84 innings pitched with 3.2 ER, 6.4 hits, 3.5 strikeouts, and 1.7 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Lopez's average outcome to be 6.32 IP, 2.0 ER, 4.8 H, 8.6 strikeouts, and 1.6 walks.

Chicago Cubs Insights

  • Adrian Sampson projects to record 17.5 outs today, according to THE BAT X.

  • THE BAT X projects Nico Hoerner as the 19th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average ability.

  • Today’s version of the Cubs projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .293 THE BAT X wOBA is considerably below their .306 overall projected rate.

Miami Marlins Insights

  • Pablo Lopez has relied on his four-seam fastball 7.4% more often this season (38.6%) than he did last season (31.2%).

  • Charles Leblanc has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the league, via THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.85 Units / 21% ROI)

  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+6.25 Units / 30% ROI)

  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)