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Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Matchup Preview - September 30th, 2022


Boston's third baseman Rafael Devers looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Vladimir Guerrero Jr and the Blue Jays. This season Rafael Devers is batting .292 with 27 home runs, 81 runs, 87 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 6th in the lineup with a The Sharp Model X projection of .230 Avg, .306 wOBA and .12 HRs. On the Blue Jays side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr has shined this year (.275 Avg, 30 HRs, 86 Rs, 93 RBIs, & 8 SBs). He's projected to bat 1st and The Sharp Model X projects his average performance today as a .345 wOBA, and .21 HRs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

  • Nick Pivetta has a large reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged facing 8 same-handed batters in this game.

  • Kike Hernandez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (61% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

  • The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst of all teams on the slate today.

  • The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cavan Biggio has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

  • Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.95 Units / 28% ROI)

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 42 games at home (+12.90 Units / 19% ROI)


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