Sharp App: Sports Betting

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Matchup Preview - October 1st, 2022

Saturday the Boston Red Sox (75-82) will battle the Toronto Blue Jays (88-69). Oddsmakers peg the Blue Jays as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 60%, leaving the Red Sox with a 40% chance to record a win. Based on the current odds the Red Sox have an implied team total of 3.58 compared to 4.42 for the Blue Jays.

Boston Red Sox Insights

  • Brayan Bello is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.3% GB% per The Sharp Model projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #6 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ross Stripling has used his off-speed and breaking balls 10.3% more often this year (58.3%) than he did last season (48%).

  • Whit Merrifield has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the lineup today.

Betting Trends

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games (+14.62 Units / 16% ROI)

  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 133 games (+5.15 Units / 4% ROI)

  • Ross Stripling has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 26% ROI)