Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup Preview - August 16th, 2022

Editor

Today's contest between the Pirates and the Red Sox pits THE BAT's 162nd ranked SP (Nick Pivetta) against the 228th ranked SP (Mitch Keller). The rundown on Pivetta tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 50.1% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a curveball (27.7%). Keller is a four-seam guy (33.7%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Pivetta deserves something like a 4.19 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 4.51. On that front, Keller's ERA sits at 4.25 and his FIP at 3.88.

Boston Red Sox Insights

  • Nick Pivetta's fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (92.7 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).

  • Tommy Pham has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.7-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 92.3-mph average.

  • Jarren Duran has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will be challenged by baseball's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • Bryan Reynolds has been lucky with his home runs this year; his 24.60 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 12.70 Expected HR/600 (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates projected lineup profiles as the worst on the slate today.

Betting Trends

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)

  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 55 away games (+4.55 Units / 7% ROI)

  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)