Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals Matchup Preview - August 5th, 2022
The Boston Red Sox (53-54) will battle the Kansas City Royals (42-64) on Friday night. Oddsmakers peg the Red Sox as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 52%, leaving the Royals with a 48% chance to record a win. Based on the current odds the Red Sox have an implied team total of 4.61 compared to 4.39 for the Royals.
Boston Red Sox Insights
Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Josh Winckowski (48.6% GB% per THE BAT projections) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 FB hitters in Kansas City's projected lineup.
Rafael Devers has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 105.9-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 93.6-mph average.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the league, per THE BAT.
Kansas City Royals Insights
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Zack Greinke has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 5.5% more often this season (59.4%) than he did last year (53.9%).
Salvador Perez has been lucky with his wOBA this year; his .298 rate is quite a bit higher than his .222 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).
Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.3%) and will be challenged by the league's 5th-deepest LF fences today.
Betting Trends
The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 65 games (+8.65 Units / 12% ROI)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 43 away games (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.90 Units / 68% ROI)