Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals Matchup Preview - August 5th, 2022

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The Boston Red Sox (53-54) will battle the Kansas City Royals (42-64) on Friday night. Oddsmakers peg the Red Sox as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 52%, leaving the Royals with a 48% chance to record a win. Based on the current odds the Red Sox have an implied team total of 4.61 compared to 4.39 for the Royals.

Boston Red Sox Insights

  • Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Josh Winckowski (48.6% GB% per THE BAT projections) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 FB hitters in Kansas City's projected lineup.

  • Rafael Devers has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 105.9-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 93.6-mph average.

  • The Boston Red Sox bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the league, per THE BAT.

Kansas City Royals Insights

  • Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Zack Greinke has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 5.5% more often this season (59.4%) than he did last year (53.9%).

  • Salvador Perez has been lucky with his wOBA this year; his .298 rate is quite a bit higher than his .222 Expected wOBA (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.3%) and will be challenged by the league's 5th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 65 games (+8.65 Units / 12% ROI)

  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 43 away games (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)

  • Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.90 Units / 68% ROI)