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Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Preview - June 8th, 2023


Today's contest between the Brewers and the Orioles pits The Sharp Model's 155th ranked SP (Kyle Bradish) against the 275th ranked SP (Colin Rea). The rundown on Bradish tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 31.7% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (27.3%). Rea is a sinker guy (27.3%) who brings a cut-fastball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Bradish deserves something like a 3.99 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 4.13. On that front, Rea's ERA sits at 4.94 and his FIP at 5.40.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

  • Kyle Bradish has averaged 14.4 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 25th percentile.

  • Adley Rutschman has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.2-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 88.8-mph mark.

  • The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the best in the majors, via The Sharp Model.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • Colin Rea has had some very good luck with his strikeouts this year, posting a 7.61 K/9 despite The Sharp Model estimating his true talent level to be 7.04 — a 0.57 K/9 deviation.

  • Jon Singleton is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#2-worst on the slate).

  • Rowdy Tellez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.5% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Betting Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+7.55 Units / 14% ROI)

  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 25 away games (+12.05 Units / 36% ROI)


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