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Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Matchup Preview - April 1st, 2023

Editor

Spencer Strider (3rd ranked SP via The Sharp Model) is projected to take the mound for Braves as they battle the Nationals and Josiah Gray (164th ranked SP) at Nationals Park. The quick scouting report on Strider: his main fastball is a four-seamer, which he uses 65.8% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a slider (29.0%). Meanwhile, Gray primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (39.9%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (29.5%). The Sharp Model X projects Strider for 2.0 earned runs and 6.6 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Gray is forecasted for 3.2 earned runs and 5.0 strikeouts.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • The Washington Nationals don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Eddie Rosario is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen all game.

  • Projected catcher Sean Murphy projects as a good pitch framer, per The Sharp Model projection system.

Washington Nationals Insights

  • Josiah Gray has put up a .258 BABIP since the start of last season, a sign that he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

  • Ildemaro Vargas has been lucky with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .302 figure is quite a bit higher than his .222 Expected wOBA (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in the majors, per The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • Josh Palacios has hit the Runs Over in his last game at home (+1.65 Units / 165% ROI)

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