Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Preview - September 22nd, 2022


Atlanta's third baseman Austin Riley looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies. This season Austin Riley is batting .274 with 37 home runs, 85 runs, 92 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 1st in the lineup with a The Sharp Model X projection of .265 Avg, .359 wOBA and .20 HRs. On the Phillies side, Kyle Schwarber has shined this year (.214 Avg, 40 HRs, 90 Rs, 85 RBIs, & 8 SBs). He's projected to bat 1st and The Sharp Model X projects his average performance today as a .304 wOBA, and .19 HRs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst on the slate today.

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

  • Vaughn Grissom has a high pull rate on his flyballs (34.5% — 87th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Ranger Suarez is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.2% GB% according to The Sharp Model projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Citizens Bank Park — the #8 HR venue in MLB — in this game.

  • Extreme flyball batters like Nick Maton tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.

  • Projected catcher J.T. Realmuto projects as an elite pitch framer, according to The Sharp Model projection system.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+5.75 Units / 15% ROI)

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)