Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Preview - October 14th, 2022


The Atlanta Braves will faceoff in a day game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves offense will be led by Austin Riley, who ranks as the #9th-best hitter in baseball according to The Sharp Model X. Given Austin Riley's profile and today's matchup specifics, The Sharp Model X expects him to average a .319 wOBA, .241 AVG, and .20 HRs. On the other side, Kyle Schwarber (The Sharp Model X's #5th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Phillies lineup. He projects for a .353 wOBA, .248 AVG, and .19 HRs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Spencer Strider has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 65.8% of the time, ranking in the 99th percentile.

  • Robbie Grossman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.

  • The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in MLB, via The Sharp Model.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Aaron Nola's fastball spin rate has increased 104 rpm this season (2302 rpm) over where it was last season (2198 rpm).

  • J.T. Realmuto has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year's 94.8-mph figure.

  • Rhys Hoskins has a high pull rate on his flyballs (35.9% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+18.33 Units / 15% ROI)

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 83 of their last 123 games (+22.45 Units / 10% ROI)

  • Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 59 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)