Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets Matchup Preview - August 4th, 2022


Atlanta's third baseman Austin Riley looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Pete Alonso and the Mets. This season Austin Riley is batting .297 with 29 home runs, 62 runs, 68 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 4th in the lineup with a THE BAT X projection of .260 Avg, .341 wOBA and .23 HRs. On the Mets side, Pete Alonso has shined this year (.276 Avg, 28 HRs, 60 Rs, 88 RBIs, & 2 SBs). He's projected to bat 3rd and THE BAT X projects his average performance today as a .324 wOBA, and .13 HRs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • Kyle Wright has been lucky with his strikeouts this year, putting up an 8.80 K/9 despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 7.80 — a 1.00 K/9 discrepancy.

  • Robbie Grossman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

  • The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the game, according to THE BAT.

New York Mets Insights

  • Carlos Carrasco was in good form in his last start and allowed 0 ER.

  • Pete Alonso has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.4-mph EV.

  • Tomas Nido hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's shallowest CF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 102 games (+14.10 Units / 9% ROI)

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 80 games (+20.72 Units / 21% ROI)

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 19 away games (+9.45 Units / 49% ROI)