Sharp App: Sports Betting

Astros vs Rangers Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 20th, 2023

The Texas Rangers are set to face off against the Houston Astros on October 20, 2023, at Globe Life Field. As the home team, the Rangers will have the advantage of playing in their own ballpark. This game is a match-up in the American League League Championship.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery, while the Astros are expected to start right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander. Montgomery, ranked as the 65th best starting pitcher in MLB, has a record of 10-11 this year with an impressive ERA of 3.20. However, his xFIP of 4.02 suggests that he may have been fortunate this season and could regress in the future. On the other hand, Verlander, ranked as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB, has a record of 13-8 with an ERA of 3.22. While his xFIP of 4.56 indicates potential regression, he has proven to be a dominant force on the mound.

This game is the fifth game in the series between the Rangers and the Astros. In their last meeting, the Rangers suffered a 10-3 loss to the Astros. Both teams had a closing Moneyline price of -110, indicating an equal chance of winning. The Rangers offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 3rd best in MLB. They excel in team batting average and home runs, ranking 2nd and 5th, respectively. However, their stolen bases rank poorly at 25th. The Astros also boast a strong offense, ranking 5th overall in MLB.

Overall, the projections favor the Rangers with a 54% win probability, compared to the Astros' 46%. The Rangers have an implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Astros have the same. The Sharp Model X predicts that the Rangers will score an average of 5.24 runs in this game, while the Astros are expected to score 5.17 runs.

It's important to note that Verlander is a high-flyball pitcher, and the powerful Rangers offense, with their 165 home runs this season, could pose a challenge for him. However, Verlander's low-walk rate could work in his favor against the high-walk Rangers offense.

With all this in mind, it looks like a close game is expected between the Rangers and the Astros. Both teams have strong offenses and capable starting pitchers, making it an intriguing match-up for both fans and bettors alike.

Astros Insights

  • Compared to the average starter, Justin Verlander has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 6.5 adjusted pitches each start.

  • Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

  • Jose Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

Rangers Insights

  • Due to his reverse platoon split, Jordan Montgomery should be in good shape going up against 7 hitters in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in this outing.

  • The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Corey Seager is assured to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the whole game.

  • Projected catcher Jonah Heim profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model).

Betting Trends

  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 92 of their last 168 games (+22.52 Units / 9% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 51 away games (+17.35 Units / 26% ROI)

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.65 Units / 25% ROI)