Sharp App: Sports Betting

Astros vs Rangers Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 19th, 2023

In a highly anticipated American League Championship matchup, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Houston Astros on October 19, 2023, at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, playing as the home team, will look to bounce back after losing their previous game against the Astros by a score of 8-5.

The Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has had an average season with a 4.15 ERA. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Heaney is ranked as the #127 best starting pitcher in MLB. On the other hand, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Urquidy, who has struggled this season with a 5.29 ERA. Our Power Rankings consider Urquidy as one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

The Rangers, known for their powerful offense, rank as the #3 best in MLB this season. They have excelled in team batting average, ranking #2 in the league, and team home runs, ranking #5. However, their weakness lies in stolen bases, where they rank #25. The Astros, meanwhile, have the #5 best offense in MLB, with a solid performance in team batting average (#14) and team home runs (#9), but an average ranking in stolen bases (#12).

In terms of the pitching matchup, Heaney is projected to pitch an average of 4.3 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 3.8 batters, and giving up 4.4 hits and walks. Urquidy is projected to pitch an average of 4.2 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, striking out 3.3 batters, and surrendering 4.8 hits and walks. Based on these projections, both pitchers face significant challenges in this game.

The Sharp Model X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Rangers with a projected win probability of 58%. This is 7% higher than the implied win probability based on the current betting market. With a high implied team total of 4.81 runs, the Rangers will rely on their potent offense to secure a victory. The Astros, with a projected win probability of 42%, will look to counter with their own strong offense, which has a high implied team total of 4.69 runs.

Astros Insights

  • When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (The Sharp Model) puts Jose Urquidy in the 25th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.

  • The Houston Astros projected batting order profiles as the best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill.

Rangers Insights

  • The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the best among all the teams today.

  • Extreme flyball hitters like Marcus Semien generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Urquidy.

  • According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), the Texas Rangers' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

Betting Trends

  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 91 of their last 161 games (+22.65 Units / 11% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 48 away games (+18.35 Units / 28% ROI)

  • Marcus Semien has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+6.75 Units / 31% ROI)