Sharp App: Sports Betting

Astros vs Rangers Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 18th, 2023

The Texas Rangers will take on the Houston Astros in an American League Championship matchup on October 18, 2023. The game will be played at Globe Life Field, with the Rangers serving as the home team.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Max Scherzer, who is considered one of the top starting pitchers in MLB. In contrast, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cristian Javier, who is considered an average pitcher.

Scherzer has had an impressive season, starting 27 games with a 13-6 win/loss record and a 3.77 ERA. While his ERA is good, his 3.26 xERA suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward. On the other hand, Javier has started 31 games with a 9-5 win/loss record and a 4.67 ERA, which is considered average.

In terms of team rankings, the Rangers have the third-best offense in MLB this season, boasting a high team batting average and ranking fifth in home runs. However, their stolen bases rank poorly at 25th. The Astros also have a strong offense, ranking fifth overall, with an average team batting average and a good ranking in home runs. Their stolen bases rank average at 12th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Rangers have the fourth-best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Astros rank eighth. This suggests that both teams have reliable relief pitchers to rely on.

Considering the projected performance of the starting pitchers and the offensive rankings, the Rangers may have an advantage in this matchup. However, it's worth noting that Scherzer, a high-strikeout pitcher, will face an Astros offense that ranks among the teams with the fewest strikeouts in MLB. This could potentially level the playing field for the Astros.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a high-scoring game. The current moneyline favors the Rangers at -130, implying a 54% win probability, while the Astros sit at +110, with a 46% win probability.

Astros Insights

  • Out of all the teams today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.

  • Kyle Tucker has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

  • The Houston Astros projected offense grades out as the best on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

Rangers Insights

  • The leading projection system (The Sharp Model X) expects Max Scherzer to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.

  • Corey Seager is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the entire game considering none of the available options for the Houston Astros share his handedness.

  • According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), the Texas Rangers' bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all major league teams.

Betting Trends

  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 92 of their last 164 games (+27.82 Units / 12% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 74 away games (+16.15 Units / 16% ROI)

  • Corey Seager has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.25 Units / 29% ROI)