Sharp App: Sports Betting

Astros vs Mariners Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - September 25th, 2023

In an American League West matchup, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park on September 25, 2023. The Mariners will be the home team, while the Astros will be the away team.

Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Mariners currently in 3rd place in the AL West and the Astros in 2nd place. The Astros are also in possession of a Wild Card spot, meeting their high expectations for the year.

The Mariners have a record of 84-71 this season, while the Astros have a record of 85-71. The Mariners have been performing better than expected, as they rank 19th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings, despite having the 10th best record in MLB. On the other hand, the Astros rank 4th in the Power Rankings, showcasing their strong underlying talent.

Luis Castillo is projected to start for the Mariners, while Justin Verlander is projected to start for the Astros. Castillo is considered the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to our Power Rankings, while Verlander ranks 29th.

Castillo has had a solid season, with a 14-7 win/loss record and an impressive 3.06 ERA. However, his 3.78 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress going forward. Verlander, with an 11-8 record and a 3.44 ERA, also has a higher xFIP of 4.63, indicating potential regression in his performance.

In terms of offense, the Mariners rank 16th in MLB, while the Astros rank 5th. The Mariners have struggled with their team batting average, ranking 24th, but have shown power with a 13th rank in team home runs. The Astros, on the other hand, have a well-rounded offense, ranking 14th in batting average and 9th in home runs.

Based on the current odds, the Mariners have an implied win probability of 53%, while the Astros have a win probability of 47%. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Astros Insights

  • The Houston Astros outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams on the slate today.

  • Jose Altuve has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.9-mph dropping to 79.8-mph in the past 14 days.

  • Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Mariners Insights

  • Compared to league average, Luis Castillo has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 7.3 adjusted pitches each outing.

  • Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Houston (#2-best on the slate today).

  • The Seattle Mariners have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, The Sharp Model X) (Cal Raleigh, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic).

Betting Trends

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+10.45 Units / 11% ROI)

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 37 away games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)

  • Chas McCormick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+6.95 Units / 49% ROI)