Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

The D-Backs are scheduled to start Zac Gallen (12-3, 2.46 ERA) against Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (17-4, 1.82 ERA) on Wednesday. In Zac Gallen's last outing, the D-Backs lost 2-3 against the Dodgers. He pitched 8 innings allowing 1 earned run with 2 hits. He also recorded 13 strikeouts with 0 walks. The last time Justin Verlander took the mound, he recorded a loss as the Astros got beat by the Orioles 0-2. He finished with 6 IP, 4 K, 0 BB, while allowing 2 earned runs on 6 hits. Today, Gallen projects for 5.79 innings pitched with 2.5 ER, 5.3 hits, 5.4 strikeouts, and 1.9 walks, according to The Sharp Model. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Verlander's average outcome to be 6.63 IP, 2.2 ER, 4.7 H, 7.7 strikeouts, and 1.6 walks.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the best of all teams on the slate today.

• The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Rojas can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Daulton Varsho has a high pull rate on his flyballs (38.6% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 10th-deepest RF fences today.

Houston Astros Insights

• Justin Verlander has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 5.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams on the slate).

• The Houston Astros (20.7 K%, via The Sharp Model X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today.

Betting Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 46 games (+2.75 Units / 5% ROI)

• Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 30 away games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)