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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers Matchup Preview - September 19th, 2022


Right-hander Merrill Kelly is expected to start today for Arizona, while left-hander Clayton Kershaw gets the nod at home for Los Angeles. Kelly enters this contest with a 3.01 ERA, backed up by a 3.41 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Kershaw, meanwhile, has a 2.65 FIP underlying his 2.44 ERA. The last time Merrill Kelly was on the bump, he suffered the loss as the D-Backs lost 0-4 against the Dodgers. He left allowing 3 earned runs and recording 8 strikeouts with 5 walks. Kershaw's last start was against the D-Backs, when he recorded the win as the Dodgers were victorious 4-0. Over 7 innings pitched, he allowed 0 earned runs with 2 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 1 walk.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

  • Merrill Kelly has been lucky this year, putting up a 3.01 ERA despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 4.04 — a 1.03 deviation.

  • Corbin Carroll has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.5-mph mark.

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to negatively regress going forward

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

  • Clayton Kershaw's 2415 rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 89th percentile among SPs.

  • Cody Bellinger is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams on the slate).

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the best in MLB, via THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 57 games (+10.90 Units / 17% ROI)

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 80 games (+24.45 Units / 27% ROI)

  • Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+8.95 Units / 21% ROI)


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