Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers Matchup Preview - September 19th, 2022
Right-hander Merrill Kelly is expected to start today for Arizona, while left-hander Clayton Kershaw gets the nod at home for Los Angeles. Kelly enters this contest with a 3.01 ERA, backed up by a 3.41 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Kershaw, meanwhile, has a 2.65 FIP underlying his 2.44 ERA. The last time Merrill Kelly was on the bump, he suffered the loss as the D-Backs lost 0-4 against the Dodgers. He left allowing 3 earned runs and recording 8 strikeouts with 5 walks. Kershaw's last start was against the D-Backs, when he recorded the win as the Dodgers were victorious 4-0. Over 7 innings pitched, he allowed 0 earned runs with 2 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 1 walk.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
Merrill Kelly has been lucky this year, putting up a 3.01 ERA despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 4.04 — a 1.03 deviation.
Corbin Carroll has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.5-mph mark.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to negatively regress going forward
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
Clayton Kershaw's 2415 rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 89th percentile among SPs.
Cody Bellinger is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the best in MLB, via THE BAT.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 57 games (+10.90 Units / 17% ROI)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 80 games (+24.45 Units / 27% ROI)
Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+8.95 Units / 21% ROI)
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