Anthony P's MLB Model October 17, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8% to 10% on totals.

In the age of big data and advanced analytics, sports predictive models have become an indispensable tool for bettors and sports enthusiasts alike. These models, often powered by sophisticated algorithms and vast amounts of data, aim to forecast the outcome of sports events with a higher degree of accuracy than human intuition alone. But while they offer numerous advantages, they also come with their own set of limitations.

Advantages of Sports Betting Models:

Data-Driven Decisions: One of the primary benefits of using predictive models is that they base their predictions on hard data. This means that instead of relying on gut feelings or biases, bettors can make informed decisions based on historical performance, player statistics, and other quantifiable metrics.
Identification of Value: Predictive models can help bettors identify potential value in bets. If a model predicts a different outcome than the odds provided by bookmakers, there might be an opportunity for a value bet.
Consistency: Human judgment can be inconsistent, swayed by emotions, recent events, or personal biases. Predictive models, on the other hand, are consistent in their approach, evaluating every game based on the same set of criteria.
Efficiency: With the ability to process vast amounts of data quickly, these models can evaluate numerous variables and scenarios in a fraction of the time it would take a human.

Limitations of Sports Betting Models:

Unpredictable Variables: As the saying goes, "sports are unpredictable." There are countless variables that a model might not account for. For instance, what a player did the night before a game, sudden illnesses, or personal issues can significantly impact their performance but might not be reflected in the model.
Weather Impact: While some models might factor in general weather conditions, the nuanced effects of weather on outdoor sports can be challenging to predict. A sudden gust of wind or a brief downpour can change the dynamics of a game in ways a model might not foresee.
Over-reliance: There's a danger in becoming too dependent on models. Bettors might ignore their own knowledge or insights about a game, thinking the model knows best. This can lead to missed opportunities or misguided bets.
Model Accuracy: No model is perfect. Even the most sophisticated predictive models can and do get predictions wrong. It's essential to understand that these are tools to aid decision-making, not guarantee outcomes.
Data Limitations: The accuracy of a model is only as good as the data it's fed. If there's a lack of comprehensive data or if the data is outdated, the model's predictions can be skewed.

While sports predictive models offer a more systematic and data-driven approach to betting, they are not infallible. They serve best as a guide, complementing a bettor's own knowledge and insights. It's essential to balance relying on the model and understanding its limitations, ensuring that bets are placed not just on numbers and algorithms but also on a comprehensive understanding of the game.

MLB BETTING MODEL FOR OCT 17, 2023

The model and the "Whale" had a tough go of it in yesterday's Houston game. Right from the outset, it appeared the under bet was in jeopardy as Valdez allowed four runs in the first inning. By the end of the fourth inning, there were already seven runs on the board, making it seem nearly impossible for the game to stay under the total. Surprisingly, as we reached the bottom of the eighth inning with two outs, there was still a chance. The score was 5-3, and there were seven outs left to get, but alas, Alvarez hit his second home run of the day, pushing the total over.

Today, we're eyeing the Dbacks, and the moneyline hasn't budged much. Currently, about $75,000 has been wagered at the book, with the overwhelming majority of it favoring the Phillies. They own 80% of the handle and 91% of the tickets. Let's dive into this game and see if Arizona can level the series.

There's a lot to like about the Diamondbacks in this matchup, primarily because of Merrill Kelly taking the mound. Kelly was outstanding in his only postseason start, pitching 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Dodgers. Kelly also boasts an impressive history against the Phillies, with a 2.75 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in three career starts against them. On the other side, Aaron Nola will be on the mound for the Phillies. He's had his moments in the playoffs but enters this game with a 7.67 ERA and 1.519 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona. The Dbacks have also been performing well, with an 8-3 record in Kelly's last 11 starts as a road underdog of +125 to +175.

With Arizona delivering another solid performance from Kelly and boasting a strong bullpen that has allowed only four runs in 23.1 postseason innings, the Diamondbacks appear poised for a significant win and we would have to agree with the value.

However, there's a strong argument to be made for the Phillies as well. The game appeared to be firmly under the control of the defending NL champions, who capitalized on Zac Gallen's struggles with a couple of high-profile home runs in the first inning, including one by Bryce Harper, who was celebrating his birthday. From that point on, Philadelphia's pitching staff dominated, limiting the Diamondbacks to just four hits. While there might be a silver lining for Arizona in that they managed to scratch out three runs on only four hits and got a look at Philly's top bullpen arms, the Phillies still look the part in this postseason, and they're expected to protect their home field in Game 2.

The pitching matchup is the most intriguing. Kelly has exceeded expectations and performed solidly this season, but he may find it challenging against a deep and balanced Philadelphia offense. Nola, on the other hand, has had his struggles during the regular season but has turned it around in the postseason. While he isn't invincible, if he can navigate through the top of Arizona's lineup, he should be able to limit the damage.

In this game, look for Arizona to put more runners on base compared to Monday, potentially causing some chaos on the basepaths. Philly is likely to push Kelly hard and aim to reach the bullpen relatively early. While the D-Backs' bullpen has performed remarkably better in the postseason than during the regular season, that streak is bound to end at some point. Even if this game is neck and neck in the middle innings, the late-inning advantage leans heavily toward the Phillies, making them my preferred pick to go up 2-0 in the series.

Good luck today!

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