Anthony P's MLB Model March 31, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 31, 2023

Yesterday, the betting model highlighted several potential plays, but I only concurred with the Red Sox, which unfortunately resulted in a loss. While the model also favored the over in the Chicago game, I disagreed with that. In the end, my baseball picks for the day were 1-1.

It's important to note that I don't blindly follow the model's recommendations when picking games. Instead, I use it as a valuable tool to identify potential value and focus my efforts on handicapping those games. I won't always agree with the model, and at times, I might even choose to go against its predictions. With a busy schedule of 21 games across all sports tonight, it's impossible to thoroughly handicap each one hence my models point me in a direction, and from there a choose a sample size of games to dig into.

At this time of the season, I'm less inclined to bet on overs, as the current weather conditions in the US and Canada are not particularly conducive to high-scoring games. Therefore, once the model likes an over (Padres tonight), we must pay more attention to the weather. In yesterday's discussion, we touched on the new rules that could impact this baseball season. Today, let's briefly explore how weather can influence the outcome of a baseball game.

A baseball betting model can account for weather impact in a game by incorporating weather-related variables that can influence the game's outcome but it's extremely difficult to evaluate the outcome. Some of the key weather factors to consider include:

1. Wind: Wind direction and speed can have a significant impact on the trajectory of a baseball, affecting both pitching and hitting. For example, strong winds blowing out towards the outfield can increase the chances of home runs, while winds blowing inwards can suppress them. Incorporate wind data into the model to adjust the expected runs scored or home run rates for each team.

2. Temperature: Temperature can affect the performance of both pitchers and hitters. Colder temperatures can make it harder for pitchers to grip the ball, which could lead to less control and effectiveness. Hitters may also struggle in colder temperatures, as the ball tends to travel shorter distances in cold weather. Adjust the model for temperature by considering historical data on pitcher and hitter performance at different temperature ranges.

3. Humidity: Humidity can impact the density of the air and the "liveliness" of the baseball. High humidity can lead to a higher rate of home runs, while low humidity can suppress them. Incorporate humidity data into the model to make adjustments for the expected number of home runs or runs scored.

4. Precipitation: Rain can lead to game delays or postponements, which can affect the performance of starting pitchers or force a game to be played with a limited number of innings. Heavy rain can also make the field conditions more challenging, affecting both defensive and offensive play. Include precipitation data in the model and make adjustments for potential game delays, shortened games, or changes in starting pitchers.

5. Altitude: Although not directly related to weather, altitude can impact how a baseball travels through the air, with balls traveling farther in higher altitudes due to thinner air. This can lead to higher-scoring games at higher altitudes, like those played at Coors Field in Denver. Adjust the model for altitude by considering historical data on scoring and home run rates at different ballpark altitudes.

By incorporating these weather-related factors into a baseball betting model, you can better account for the impact of weather on the game's outcome and make more informed betting decisions. Also based on the time of the year, not many of these factors favor the offense hence stay away from overs unless the match-up is ideal.

The Padres' offense has the potential to explode in tonight's game against Colorado, possibly putting up five or six runs on their own. Led by Bogaerts in their previous match, if the rest of the lineup can keep up the momentum, the Rockies might have their hands full. On the other hand, Colorado's offense could regain its rhythm following Cron's inspiring performance, setting the stage for a high-scoring game on Friday night.

San Diego tends to bounce back after low-scoring games, as evidenced by these trends: the total has gone over in the Padres' last 6 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in the previous match, and over in their last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Additionally, the total has gone over in the Padres' last 4 games following a loss.

Considering both starting pitchers have SIERAs above 4, and with Freeland struggling against left-handed hitters, we can expect the Padres' offense to deliver the 6 runs I predicted yesterday. The Rockies demonstrated exceptional batting in their last game, posting a near .400 average, and receiving contributions from every player. Given these factors, the game total going over in tonight's San Diego-Colorado matchup seems likely.

Another intriguing matchup from the model is taking place in Miami and has caught my attention. While the sharp money is backing Miami, the betting model leans towards the Mets, showing a 6% expected value.

The Mets are looking to capitalize on their strong offense as they face Miami, who is hoping to show improvement this season. Despite the sharp money being on Miami, their lackluster offensive performance raises concerns about their ability to turn things around. If they fail to generate more offense this season, it's going to be a challenging year for them.

David Peterson, a reliable lefty, is starting for the Mets on Friday, facing off against Jesus Luzardo in an all-lefty starter matchup. The Mets' hitters managed to score runs against Sandy Alcantara, in the opener, making it difficult to bet against them in this matchup. With only a slight premium on the Mets, this game presents a unique opportunity to back New York at a low line as per the MKB betting model.

Statistically, Peterson has been highly effective against the Marlins throughout his career. Over 51 at-bats against the current Miami roster, he has limited them to a .216/.286/.373 slash line, with only four of those 51 ABs being extra-base hits. Peterson's success, combined with the Mets' superior star power, leads me to believe that New York is the right play in this game.

Good luck today!

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