Anthony P's MLB Model March 30, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 30, 2023

Welcome to the new MLB season! I hope everyone is excited about this season. There are a ton of new rules to make the game more interesting. The model will be adjusting for the first 30 days and I will do everything possible to readjust based on any patterns that are out of wack due to the changes in some of the rules that may impact the game. Here are the following changes for the 2023 season:

1. Pitch clock

2. Elimination of the shift

3. bigger bases

4. Limit how many times a pitcher can disengage

The model is heavy on the Redsox today showing over 15% EV against the Orioles. Boson opened at -130 at BOL and it's moving toward the Orioles hence opening up more value on the Redsox.

My lean is on the Red Sox also and I believe they will emerge victorious in today's opening-day game at home against the Baltimore Orioles. New additions like Justin Turner and Adam Duvall are eager to make an impact and put on a show, while the youthful Orioles squad may experience opening day nerves.

Despite a disappointing 2022 season, the Red Sox maintained an above .500 record at home. They also ranked third in the MLB for batting average and sixth in on-base percentage. With neither team fielding their primary starter, I anticipate a game dominated by offense rather than defense. Last year, Baltimore languished in the bottom half of the league in all offensive categories.

The Red Sox enter the season with injuries, especially in their starting rotation. New arrival Kluber has an impressive history both in April and against the Orioles. In their last ten Opening Day games, the Red Sox hold a 5-5 record, including 1-1 against the Orioles.

Meanwhile, the Orioles have lost three of their previous four Opening Day matches. The Red Sox have consistently performed better at home, even during last year's subpar season, with a 43-38 record at Fenway Park, including 6-4 against the Orioles. Kluber boasts a 4-1 record and a 3.53 ERA in his seven career starts at Fenway Park.

I expect the Red Sox to thrive in front of a packed home crowd on Opening Day.

Good luck today!

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