Anthony P's MLB Model June 7, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR JUNE 7, 2023

Yesterday, our predictive model achieved a satisfactory 2-1 overall record and an even 1-1 in props. Today's slate appears a bit thin on value, offering only a couple of totals. I find myself in disagreement with both of these predictions.

Mariners over 8 12.35% EV
Phillies over 7.5 7.90% EV

In a compelling match-up between two right-handed pitchers, Michael Wacha of the San Diego Padres squares off against George Kirby of the Seattle Mariners. The total is dropping and I can see 3 books posting a 7.5. Wacha has been delivering great results for the Padres. His changeup has proven to be his key weapon, an offering that the Mariners' lineup, notably weak against such pitches, might find challenging. Wacha's performance in May has been impressive, and he's expected to put up a good fight against Seattle. He's allowed 5 ER in his last 6 games and 36 innings pitched.

On the other hand, George Kirby, one of the promising young talents in the game, will be taking the mound for the Mariners. His exceptional command of the game is underpinned by an impressive strike-to-walk ratio. Kirby's powerful fastball and his ability to generate ground balls and easy outs make him an efficient pitcher who uses fewer pitches per plate appearance. Despite their lineup, the Padres' offense has been lackluster this season, which might work to Kirby's advantage. After getting rocked by the Pirates, he pitched a gem against the Yankees going 8 strong innings allowing no ER, and striking out 8. A low-scoring game is anticipated between these two teams given the impressive bullpens of both teams.

In their most recent game, despite a strong bullpen performance, the Tigers were unable to convert their hits into runs, leading to their defeat. For the upcoming game, they are banking on rookie Reese Olson, who had an impressive debut, showcasing a composed and effective presence on the mound.

On the other side, the Philadelphia Phillies enter the game on a 4 game-winning streak. Their recent victory against the Tigers was marked by a spectacular pitching performance from Taijuan Walker and Kyle Schwarber's solitary home run that sealed the win. Looking forward, they have Zack Wheeler set to start, who despite a rough recent performance, is expected to put up a decent show.

The game is anticipated to be a low-scoring affair given the recent trends and the capabilities of the two pitchers. Therefore, it's normal to see the total drop to 7.5 which is opened value based on the model projections.

PROPS:

JJ Bleday under 0.5 bases +135 (Bet365) Good up to +130
Olson under 4.5 K's +105 Good up to -105
Wheeler under 19.5 outs -115 good up to -125




Good luck today

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