Anthony P's MLB Model Aug 14, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR AUG 14, 2023

The week kicks off with a limited lineup in MLB. As the season progresses, the model's projections refine, leading to more precise lines as we approach the season's end.

For Monday, one notable play is the over in San Francisco. The shift in value was evident when the total dropped from 8 to 7.5 earlier today.

Giants Over 7.5 11.53% EV

As the MLB season progresses, the stakes get higher, and the matchups become more intense. The upcoming clash between the San Francisco Giants and the Tampa Bay Rays is no exception. Both teams are in the thick of the postseason race, and this series carries significant implications.

The expanded wild card system has added a layer of intrigue to the MLB season. While it has its critics, mainly due to the altered schedule that often takes divisional races out of the division, it has also led to some nail-biting series. Think of the Toronto-Cubs type matchups. Now, we have the Giants taking on the Rays. While they aren't directly competing against each other for wild card spots, the outcome of their games has ripple effects throughout the league.

The Rays, competing for the wild card in the American League, are in a comfortable position, six games clear of being ousted from the wild card race. Many would argue they're almost a guaranteed lock for the postseason. The Giants, on the other hand, face a steeper climb. They're grappling for the wild card in the National League, having fallen behind in the National League West, a whopping eight and a half games behind the Dodgers. Their wild card hopes took a hit when the Phillies recently overtook them. Now, they're precariously positioned, with the Cubs breathing down their necks and the Marlins and Reds not far behind. The National League wild card race is shaping up to be a photo finish, with the outcome potentially undecided until the final games of the season.

Despite the challenges, the Giants have shown resilience. They've been playing solid baseball, even if they don't always get the credit they deserve. However, recent series have tested them. After a tough stint with the Rangers, now they face the Rays, who've had their own set of challenges. The Rays missed an opportunity to sweep the Guardians, suffering a 9-2 loss. Yet, they've shown an ability to bounce back, winning their last four road games following a loss. Their recent form is commendable, with an 8-4 record in their last 12 games. Betting enthusiasts would also note that the OVER has cashed in 4 of the Rays' last 6 games.

The Giants, meanwhile, narrowly avoided a home sweep, thanks to a two-run walk-off homer from Patrick Bailey against the Texas Rangers. However, their track record at home, especially against AL East opponents, is concerning. They've lost 11 of their last 12 home games against AL East teams following a home win.

From a betting perspective, the Rays seem to be the safer bet. The Giants have struggled against right-handed pitching in August, which could be a significant factor in the upcoming games. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays has been ramping up his workload, and with the solid Rays lineup backing him, he seems poised for success. While the Giants' bullpen has had its moments, matching up against the Rays might be a bridge too far.

Given the Giants' current batting and scoring trends, I'm skeptical about the over, especially with Glasnow pitching. In their last 5 games against right-handed pitchers, the Giants have an R/9 of 1.7 and a batting average of .172. Their stats over the last 10 games show a 2.6 R/9 and a .173 batting average. The under has been the outcome in 7 out of the last 9 head-to-head matches. I'll steer clear of the total and am inclined to place a bet on the Rays this evening.

Good luck today

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