Anthony P's MLB Model Aug 11, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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MLB BETTING MODEL FOR AUG 11, 2023

After a day's pause due to a less-than-appealing slate, we're diving back into the world of baseball betting. Today's landscape doesn't offer much in terms of value, with the model being exceptionally tight. However, one game that seems to be catching everyone's eye is the Giants with a +10.70% EV. But should we trust the model blindly?

GIANTS +105 vs Gray 10.70% EV

The betting line for this game has seen its fair share of fluctuations. BOL initially favored the Rangers with a line of -114, but that has since been adjusted to -105. Meanwhile, the consensus seems to be tilting towards the Giants at -105, although some places still offer the Giants at a tempting +105. This inconsistency in the betting line suggests a divided opinion among bettors and books alike.

Diving deeper into the matchup, the Giants are gearing up for a bullpen game, with Scott Alexander taking the lead. This strategy can be a double-edged sword, offering flexibility but also unpredictability. On the other side, the Rangers have chosen John Gray as their starting pitcher. Admittedly, Gray's recent form has been a bit shaky, with him conceding four or more runs in five of his last six outings. However, it's crucial to highlight his impressive 3.14 ERA on the road, coupled with a solid 4-2 record. These stats hint at Gray's ability to bounce back, especially when playing away.

Recent form is another factor that can't be overlooked. The Rangers are riding a wave of confidence, having secured wins in eight of their last nine games. The Giants, in contrast, seem to be struggling, with four losses in their last five games. Their offense, in particular, has been a cause for concern. Their recent defeats to the Angels and the A's underscore their inconsistency. Furthermore, their performance against right-handed pitchers over the past two weeks leaves much to be desired, ranking a lowly 29th in terms of OPS and isolated power.

While the Giants can take some solace in their bullpen's performance, boasting a top-three ERA, the Rangers are not far behind, sitting comfortably in the sixth spot. This suggests that even in the later stages of the game, the Rangers have the depth and quality to hold their ground.

In conclusion, while the model seems to be favoring the Giants, a deeper dive into the stats and recent performances suggests otherwise. The Rangers appear to have the edge in this matchup, making them a more logical choice for those looking to place a bet.

Good luck today

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