Anthony P's CFL Model Week 11

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-field advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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CFL BETTING MODEL FOR WEEK 11, 2023

The rapidly approaching Week 11 of the CFL season brings with it a mix of anticipation, trepidation, and, for the astute sports bettor, a slew of calculations. As projections flow in, the +7 edge for Calgary immediately stands out as tantalizing. However, the potential absence of five starters puts a cloud of uncertainty over this favorable forecast, reminding us of the unpredictable essence of sports betting.

Handicapping the CFL has always been akin to navigating a minefield, especially given its volatile nature. This year, in particular, has witnessed a spate of injuries, especially to quarterbacks, turning it into a veritable battleground. In a surprising revelation, the action on CFL at the books pales in comparison to the WNBA, which sees a volume surge, outstripping the CFL by tenfold. It's a striking commentary not just on the growing appeal of women's basketball but also on the challenging landscape of the CFL.

Yet, amidst the chaos of injuries and the diminished action, the bookmakers deserve a tip of the hat. Their prowess in pricing games, even against the tumultuous backdrop, has been nothing short of commendable. The proof? A balanced ledger where both away and home teams have maintained an even keel, with a 50/50 ATS (against the spread) record this season. The favorites, too, haven't disappointed, covering a respectable 55% of the games. Splitting this further, away favorites slightly edge out their home counterparts, covering 56% to the latter's 54.5%.

One trend that has unequivocally emerged this season is the dominance of the unders, hitting the mark in a whopping 60% of the games. But to truly appreciate this, let's embark on a brief historical detour. Between 2018 and 2021, the CFL saw a gradual dip in scoring, shrinking nearly 15%. However, 2022 turned the tables with a 15% surge, elevating the average to over 50 points per game. Fast forward to 2023, and it's déjà vu all over again. The league has reverted to its 2018-2021 demeanor, with scoring plummeting nearly 14% from the previous year. The current average hovers around a modest 44 points per game. Yet, the bookmakers seem to be stuck in yesteryear, continuing to post totals upwards of 47.

For the discerning bettor, this presents a golden opportunity. Leveraging the current league average against the bookmakers' optimistic projections can yield profitable outcomes. The strategy? Bet under the total. As the CFL marches into Week 11, this disparity between perception and reality might just be the key to unlocking betting success.

In the final analysis, while the CFL might be wrestling with its challenges, for the strategic bettor, these very challenges can be turned into opportunities. Here's to harnessing the numbers, understanding the trends, and making the most of Week 11. Happy betting!

Model play:
Anthony's Play:

Good luck

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