Anthony P's CFL Model July 3, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-field advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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CFL BETTING MODEL FOR JULY 3, 2023

Hey CFL fans, welcome to our inaugural 2023 CFL article! If you've been following our WNBA model, you know the drill: I'll be dissecting the book's raw projections and pointing you toward potential winners.

First up, let's talk about this intriguing matchup. The book's raw projections put this game at -2.5, but curiously, the line opened at -1. It's since drifted to -3, but I'm scratching my head trying to figure out the book's game here. Given that away teams are coming in hot with a 9-5 ATS (64%) and away favorites boasting a sizzling 4-1 (80%), it's perplexing to see the line opening at -1 instead of -3. Some books in the US markets opened this line at a pickem.

This line's certainly got legs, with some books already posting -3.5. Despite less than 25k wagered on this game and a whopping 77% of the handle on the Lions, remember that in the CFL, just like the WNBA, it doesn't take a truckload of cash to make the books twitch and shift the line, especially when max betting limits hover around the 2-3k mark.

Now, let's turn our eyes to the Argos at +3.5, which is a play that's got me intrigued. Digging into the trends, the Lions have a solid 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. However, the Argonauts are holding their ground with a 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

While the BC Lions look stronger on paper, don't discount the Toronto Argonauts just yet. They've held their own in their first two games and must view this home game as an opportunity to prove they're contenders this season. It might be early days, but the Argos are leading the league in both rush offense and rush defense. And let's be real, any team that can control the ground game on both sides of the ball makes for a compelling underdog.

MODEL Bets:

Anthony's leans: Argos at +3.5 or better


Good luck

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