Anthony P's CFL Model July 28, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-field advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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CFL BETTING MODEL FOR JULY 28, 2023

With the Canadian Football League's Friday night lights all set to blaze, we see an interesting dynamic playing out in the matchup between the Ottawa Redblacks and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Typically not the go-to sport for sharp players, CFL is stirring up a buzz this time around, particularly around the Tiger-Cats. Initial betting lines had the Redblacks as -5 favorites, but this quickly shifted to -2, and in some sportsbooks like Westgate Nevada, even -1.5.

Since filling in for the injured Jeremiah Masoli, the Redblacks' quarterback Dustin Crum has been nothing short of a revelation. Leading the team to consecutive overtime victories, he's instilled a new vigor into the Redblacks who are now balanced at 3-3 this season. Their last week's nail-biting win against the Calgary Stampeders is a testament to Crum's leadership, where the Redblacks not only prevailed 43-41 in overtime but also covered the 4.5-point underdog spread.

However, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are determined not to make it easy for the Redblacks. Even though their last game ended in a 31-15 defeat to the Toronto Argonauts, failing to cover the 10.5-point home underdogs, they look geared up to bounce back. Their ace quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell is making a comeback after a hip injury, which could potentially strengthen their offensive line and can also explain the line moving in their favor. Also, it's noteworthy that the Tiger-Cats have had a better outcome in their past meetings with the Redblacks, having won their early-season encounter 21-13.

Let's delve into some intriguing trends that are shaping up:

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats’ Impressive July: The Tiger-Cats, on the back of their commendable 4-1 ATS record in their last few July encounters, appear to be a team on a hot streak during this month, thus making them an intriguing prospect for bettors.

Tiger-Cats Struggle on the Road: Contrasting with their success in July, the Tiger-Cats have been grappling with their away form, registering a less than stellar 3-7 ATS record in recent road games. This might flag a warning sign for their forthcoming away assignments.

Ottawa Redblacks Flourish on Fridays: The Redblacks seem to have a knack for turning up the heat when it comes to Friday showdowns, as evidenced by their 4-1 ATS record in recent Friday outings.

Redblacks’ Home Hurdle: Despite their successes on Fridays, the Redblacks seem to hit a roadblock when playing at home. They have a disappointing 19-40 ATS record in their last sizable chunk of home games. This may factor into the prognosis for their future home matches.

Tiger-Cats’ Upper Hand in Ottawa: Historical trends suggest that the Tiger-Cats have had a rather comfortable ride in Ottawa, showcasing a 6-2 ATS record in their last few outings in the city. This could tilt the scales when the teams meet again.

Tiger-Cats’ Friday Follies: In stark contrast to their general performances, the Tiger-Cats have hit a snag when it comes to Friday fixtures. Their 0-4 ATS record in recent Friday matches signals an area that could be exploited.

Tiger-Cats’ East Division Discomfort: Divisional match-ups have not been kind to the Tiger-Cats, as their 2-9 ATS record in recent games against East division teams shows.

These trends offer a snapshot of past performances and potentially valuable insights into future games. But remember, while trends are useful, they are not infallible. Sports are a domain of unpredictability, where David can triumph over Goliath, and a favorite can falter unexpectedly.

While the betting lines might suggest a slight favor towards the Redblacks, the game could go either way. Given their current form under Crum and the home advantage, the Redblacks seem primed to give the Tiger-Cats a run for their money.

MODEL Bets: Ottawa -2

Anthony's leans:

Good luck

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