Anthony P's CFL Model July 23, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-field advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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CFL BETTING MODEL FOR JULY 23, 2023

As with any professional sports league, the Canadian Football League (CFL) has its own intricacies when it comes to predicting outcomes and placing wagers. Today we delve into an interesting CFL betting scenario involving the Calgary Stampeders and the Ottawa RedBlacks, demonstrating the delicate balance between raw projections, public betting trends, and the bookmaker's art.

The betting line for Calgary's game has been in flux, oscillating between -4.5 and -5.5, as bookmakers struggle to find equilibrium. This quest for balance is at the heart of bookmaking in the CFL. Bookmakers don't gamble; they seek a line that will equalize the handle - the total amount wagered - on both sides. This allows them to earn their profit from the "vig," or commission, rather than being exposed to the risky outcomes of the games.

In the case of the Stampeders versus the RedBlacks, the opening line was set at a "soft" -4.5. As the early handle heavily favored Calgary, the bookmakers adjusted the line to -5.5. But this movement triggered heavy wagering on Ottawa, causing the line to retract to -4. The line finally settled back at -4.5 with a 50/50 handle, signifying that the bookmakers' mission to find balance was indeed accomplished.

Interestingly, the raw projection for this game was at -6.5 in favor of Calgary, which indicates a potential value for bettors at -4.5.

Delving into the performance metrics of both teams reveals compelling trends. The RedBlacks are 4-11 Against the Spread in their last 15 games following an ATS win and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up win. The Stampeders, on the other hand, have had more success, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 7 and 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing record. However, they've struggled in July, with a 2-6 ATS record in their last 8 games.

Despite these conflicting trends, the Stampeders have demonstrated a slight edge on both sides of the ball this season. The team's performance has been inconsistent, but there's a good reason to believe they'll do enough to pull off a win against the RedBlacks, evening up their record.

In this close-fought contest, look for Calgary to control the game throughout. The combination of their superior performance metrics, favourable raw projections, and the trends we've analyzed suggest that they will overpower Ottawa down the stretch. However, the outcome of this match heavily hinges on Dustin Crum. If Crum can mirror his stellar performance from the previous week, the RedBlacks will undoubtedly remain competitive. But, should he fail to deliver, they'll need to devise a strategy to maintain a low-scoring game.

Given both teams' proficiency on the ground, it's safe to predict a game with fewer points on the scoreboard. As such, the betting advice here leans towards taking the under and opting for the points with the RedBlacks. This strategy banks on a close, hard-fought contest where every single point will be of utmost importance.

MODEL Bets: Calgary -4.5

Anthony's leans: Under 45

Good luck

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