Anthony P's CFL Model July 15, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-field advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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CFL BETTING MODEL FOR JULY 15, 2023

What's up, CFL fans! We had a thrilling Wednesday as our model bet on the over in the Edmonton game came through with ease. However, I must admit, I missed out on a great opportunity to back the Cats when the line closed at +2, despite our model favoring them at -2.5. Sometimes, getting caught up in too many variables can cloud your judgment. Lesson learned!

Moving on to Friday's action, our model liked the Alouettes, and although I forgot to post the article in time, you all saw the model projections late Monday night. The line closed at +6.5 for the Alouettes, while the book projected the Argos as a field goal favorite. It's unfortunate that I couldn't share that information earlier, but hopefully, some of you managed to take advantage of the value presented. The game is not over but Montreal is up by 3 at the half.

Now, let's shift our focus to Saturday's game, where our model is indicating value in favor of the Ottawa Redblacks. However, I must admit, I'm a bit skeptical about jumping on board with this one. According to the model, the Blue Bombers are favored by a touchdown, yet the line is set at -9.5. As I mentioned earlier this week, I need to see the Redblacks getting at least +10 before seriously considering them. But I must confess, I'm a bit hesitant!

The Redblacks have displayed a strong defensive performance, ranking among the top half of the league in various categories. Those analyzing the Blue Bombers vs. Redblacks odds will notice that Ottawa stands second in the CFL, allowing a mere 18.3 points per game. However, the Redblacks have encountered difficulties when it comes to scoring points themselves.

Offensively, Ottawa ranks eighth in the league, averaging just 16.5 points per game. Injuries have taken a toll on the Redblacks, particularly at the quarterback position, where they lost Tyrie Adams and Jeremiah earlier in the season. As a result, Dustin Crum will be stepping up as the starting quarterback. While Crum showcased some potential, completing 67% of his passes for 149 yards, he also threw two interceptions during Ottawa's loss to Hamilton last week.

On the other hand, the Blue Bombers possess the ability to generate significant offensive output, although they haven't necessarily needed to showcase it in their past two games. Winnipeg remains a threat when it comes to putting up big numbers on offense. Meanwhile, the Redblacks' offensive struggles have been evident.

Given Ottawa's limitations on offense with their new quarterback, I anticipate them to get their butts kicked. It's no surprise that Winnipeg is a substantial favorite in this matchup, as the Blue Bombers have multiple avenues to secure a victory. Their strong defense should apply pressure on a weak Ottawa offense, leading to a comfortable win for Winnipeg. I don't agree with the model.

MODEL Bets: Ottawa +9.5

Anthony's leans:

Good luck

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