Anthony P's CFL Model July 13, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-field advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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CFL BETTING MODEL FOR JULY 13, 2023

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to another thrilling week of CFL action. Tonight, we have a highly anticipated showdown between two struggling teams with less-than-stellar defensive units. The Whale, a well-known bettor, has placed a hefty wager on the over 42.5, and I must say, I agree with his assessment. While the line doesn't offer much value, it's intriguing to see how the book's raw projection opened the Cats as 2.5-point favorites. Initially, the juice pointed towards the line moving to -3, but surprisingly, it took a different turn and dropped to -1.5.

When we look at the trends, they seem to be a bit all over the place, with a heavy leaning towards the under. The Tiger-Cats have struggled ATS in their last nine road games, going 2-7, and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. On the other hand, the Elks have had their own struggles, going 17-38 ATS in their last 55 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Additionally, the under has hit in 19 of the Tiger-Cats' last 28 road games and in five of the Elks' last six games overall. However, when it comes to their head-to-head matchups, the Tiger-Cats have been impressive, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Edmonton and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings overall.

Now, while the Hamilton Tiger-Cats may be the superior team on paper and rightfully favored, the line movement has raised some concerns. The Edmonton Elks are coming off their best performance of the season, where they came agonizingly close to defeating Saskatchewan on the road. Although the Elks haven't excelled on either side of the ball, the Tiger-Cats haven't exactly been setting the world on fire either. In fact, Edmonton has only scored a total of 18 points in their last two games, but they should have an opportunity to improve their offensive output against a Hamilton defense that has surrendered 125 points in just four games this season.

According to our model, this game is projected to go over the total by a field goal, and we will follow suit with this play, hoping that the Elks' offense wakes up from their slumber and puts some points on the board.

MODEL Bets: Hamilton over 42.5

Anthony's leans:

Good luck

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