Anthony P's CFL Model Aug 25, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-field advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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CFL BETTING MODEL FOR AUG 25, 2023

Every game holds a story, a narrative that bettors weave together from stats, trends, and gut feelings. This Friday, the narrative is all about redemption as the Toronto Argonauts face off against the Calgary Stampeders.

While the Montreal game didn't pique our interest, this matchup certainly does. The market currently favors the Argos by a margin of 9.5 to 10.5 points. However, diving into my betting model, I see them at a more conservative -7. This discrepancy offers a tantalizing value at +10.5. But, as any seasoned bettor knows, no game is a sure thing.

The Calgary Stampeders, despite their storied history, are in a bit of a rut. Their recent 19-18 loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers brought their season tally to a lackluster 3-7. Historically, Calgary has been a force to reckon with on the road, boasting a 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 away games. Their August record is even more impressive, with a 30-12-2 ATS in their last 44 games. But this Toronto team, riding high on a wave of recent successes, might just be too much for these trends to continue.

The Argonauts, on the other hand, are in stellar form. Coming off a bye week, they're looking to continue their winning streak after a dominant 44-31 victory over Ottawa in Week 10. Their only blemish? A surprising 20-7 upset at the hands of the Stampeders. But context is crucial here. The Argos lost their star quarterback, Chad Kelly, early in that game, a setback that undoubtedly influenced the outcome. Kelly, a favorite for the Most Outstanding Player title, had been instrumental in Toronto's offensive prowess.

Now, with Kelly expected back under center, the dynamics change. The Argos' offense, which leads the CFL in yards per play, is poised to exploit Calgary's weaknesses. Jake Maier, Calgary's QB, despite his commendable performance in their last encounter, has been plagued with accuracy issues all season. Leading the league in interceptions, Maier will be up against an Argos defense that's been great at rushing the QB and creating turnovers.

While the Stampeders' previous victory over the Argos might give them a psychological edge, the stats and trends suggest otherwise. With the Argos seeking revenge and Kelly back in action, expect a thrilling game where Toronto not only seeks to win but to cover the spread. I don't like laying the -10.5 but if we can get a number around -9 I'd take it.

Model play: Calgary +10.5
Anthony's Play:

Good luck

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