Anthony P's CFL Model Aug 18, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-field advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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CFL BETTING MODEL FOR AUG 18, 2023

Hamilton's recent home game performance can only be described as a debacle. Their consistent underwhelming displays have made them a team to avoid for the rest of the season, at least from a betting perspective. Despite a promising first-half scoring, ended with the game going under the total, a trend that has been a consistent money-maker for those who've been paying attention and reading my articles.

Week 11's projections had initially shown promise for the Calgary Stampeders. They were getting +7-at home while the model had the game at +4. However, the uncertainty surrounding the availability of several key starters threw a wrench in the works. This uncertainty was reflected in the rapidly shifting lines, which moved from -6.5 to -5.5, and finally settled at -4 the previous night with the injuries not being as bad as anticipated.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers, on the other hand, have been on a tear. With a stellar 7-2 record and riding a three-game winning streak, they've proven their mettle, especially on the road, boasting a 3-1 SU record. Contrast this with the Calgary Stampeders, who are desperately seeking a turnaround after losing 5 of their last 7 games and holding a less-than-impressive 1-3 SU home record (just like Hamilton).

But, as any seasoned sports bettor knows, past performance isn't the only metric to consider. The Blue Bombers might be struggling with a 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, but they've been dominant with a 26-11 ATS against the West. The Stampeders, despite their home woes, have a jaw-dropping 15-0-1 ATS record in their last 16 Week 11 games. This, combined with their 13-3-1 ATS record following an ATS loss, throws a fascinating twist into the mix.

Analyzing the teams' strengths, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers stand out as arguably the league's top team, boasting what many consider the best offense. The Calgary Stampeders, meanwhile, seem to be their own worst enemy. Their inability to close out games, especially at home, has been their Achilles' heel. Their recent performances have not only been losses but have also failed to cover the spread, making them a less attractive bet.

Given the current dynamics, the Stampeders seem to be in a precarious position. Their recent performances have been far from convincing, and their track record doesn't inspire much confidence. On the other hand, the Blue Bombers, with their impressive league standing and potent offense, appear to be the safer bet. With the current line being more than reasonable, it's hard not to lean towards the Blue Bombers.

In conclusion, while the allure of historical trends and past performances can be tempting, it's essential to analyze the current form and team dynamics. As Week 11 unfolds, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, with their reasonable line, seem to be the smart bet for those looking to bet this game.

I would bet the Bombers at -3 or better while I would bet the Stamps at +7 or better. No play for me

Model play:
Anthony's Play:

Good luck

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