Anthony P's CFL Model Aug 17, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-field advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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CFL BETTING MODEL FOR AUG 17, 2023

Tonight's showdown in Hamilton offers a tantalizing mix of historical trends, current season dynamics, and the ever-intriguing game of predicting where the value lies.

For those who've been following closely, you'll recall the deep dive into the league's trends for the current season in my previous article. If you missed it, I'd recommend a quick read to get a grasp on the overarching patterns that have emerged.

Tonight, Hamilton is set to witness a clash between two of the league's most porous defenses. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats, who opened as 4.5-point favorites three days ago, have seen their favoritism rise, currently standing at -5.5 at most books. Interestingly, the total has taken a dip, moving from 45.5 to 44. This shift towards the under aligns with the dominant trend this season, as highlighted in our previous analysis.

While there isn't an abundance of value in this game, early birds who caught the Cats at -4.5 did manage to snag some, especially when considering the -6 model projection.

The narrative of the teams is starkly contrasting. The Edmonton Elks are mired in a dismal run, still searching for their inaugural win of the season after a disheartening 0-9 start. It's been a long drought for the Elks, with their last victory dating back to September of the previous year. On the flip side, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, after splitting their last six games, are rejuvenated post their bye week. However, their home record leaves much to be desired, standing at 1-3 SU.

Diving into the historical trends, the Elks have a commendable 4-1 ATS record in their last five Thursday games. However, their overall recent form is patchy, with a 3-7 ATS in their last ten games. The Tiger-Cats, despite their home struggles reflected in a 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, have a strong 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing record. The under trend is evident for both teams, but there's a twist in the tale for those considering the under tonight: the Elks have a 7-1 over trend following a bye week.

The head-to-head stats further muddy the waters. While the Elks have a decent 6-2-2 ATS in their last ten visits to Hamilton, their overall recent meetings tilt in favor of the Tiger-Cats with a 1-5 ATS for the Elks.

Analyzing the teams' performance, the Edmonton Elks, despite their underdog status, haven't been covering the spread. The Tiger-Cats, with a victory over Edmonton last month and an additional week of preparation, seem poised for a strong performance. The Elks, with their below-par performances across the board, offer no compelling argument for an upset. The Tiger-Cats, especially given their underwhelming home start, have no room for excuses.

Model play:
Anthony's Play: Hamilton -5

Good luck

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