Anthony P's CFL Model Aug 10, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-field advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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CFL BETTING MODEL FOR AUG 10, 2023

Take our recent success with Saskatchewan, for instance, a game that turned out to be a thrilling watch and a profitable bet. It was quite the experience to witness the dynamic shifts and anticipate outcomes. Since I share my model for week 10, the results were telling: Montreal's odds shifted a full point within a day and the Argos? They saw a two-point leap, just as predicted with their QB now looking like he will play.

But, and there's always a 'but' in sports betting, the CFL still feels like an enigma. It's a league that requires caution. Jumping the gun and placing early bets isn't my cup of tea when it comes to the CFL. The volatility and unpredictability of the league make it both thrilling and nerve-wracking which I don't like much.

So, where does that leave us for the Thursday game?

It's a challenging scenario. On the one hand, Winnipeg is on the road with a daunting number to cover but that becomes all the more relevant when you consider the away favorites' 60% ATS hit rate this CFL season. But, my models and calculations show no clear value in this particular game.

As we pivot to the total points expected, a fascinating trend emerges. The number has seen a rise, moving from 42 to 45. While no clear value emerges here either, the unders have a compelling 66% (21-11) success rate this season. This isn't just a stat; it's a testament to the defensive masterclass exhibited in many games.

Now, let's delve deeper into Edmonton's plight. They've been having a tough season, with the double whammy of the worst offense and defense. Against them is a team with stellar statistics: they're leading in total yards per game and boast the 3rd best defense in terms of yards defended. It's hard to envision a scenario where Edmonton puts up a lot of points on the board. This sentiment is further strengthened by recent historical trends. The 'Under' seems to be the dominant theme when these teams meet or when they play against specific categories of teams. For instance, the 'Under' trend has emerged victorious in 4 out of their last 5 meetings. It also reigns supreme in situations like the Elks playing against a team from the West or with a winning record. Even the Blue Bombers have a tendency to stay 'Under' following a bye week or when playing against the West.

Drawing from these rich statistics and trends, my lean is evident: I have a liking for the 'Under'

In the grand scheme of the CFL, one thing is clear. Every game is a new chapter, a fresh narrative, and a lesson in humility and prediction. Happy betting!

MODEL Bets:

Anthony's Play: Under 45

Good luck

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