Tokyo 2020 Olympic Overview and Betting Primer

#Tokyo2020, yes, 2020

3 years ago

Aaron Friedman

Overview of the Olympics and favorite betting plays of the Games, betting card at the bottom.

Yes, #Tokyo2020 is a thing, even though the calendar says 2021, the Olympics which have actually started (softball and soccer -- the US Women’s National Team lost to Sweden early Wednesday morning), the “Games” will go down in the record books officially as the 2020 Summer Games occurring in 2021. For those who love the Olympics and Olympic history, even though we had to wait a year, we have less than a year until the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics begin on February 4, 2022. Enjoy the preview and view my betting card at the bottom.

Olympics and COVID-19

It is virtually impossible to ignore the impact COVID-19 will have on the games. “Should they have the games?” and “will they have the games?” were questions highly debated for much of 2020, as they were in NBA, college football, and most American sports outside of the NFL, which largely pushed through, business as usual. The most notable element COVID will play is that there will not be any spectators, domestic or foreign. Even with no spectators and no ticket revenue, the Olympics will go on because broadcasting fees account for roughly 73% of the IOC’s revenue.

Beyond not having fans, the athletes will be frequently tested and subjected to a laundry lists of precautions, including having medalists place the medals around their own necks and having to vacate the country 24-48 hours after their sport ends.

Olympics Teams of Note

Australia: Interesting to me in both swimming and basketball. I am expecting the Americans to take a step back in swimming which will benefit the Aussies who have a number of top-ranked swimmers. Swimming is the first week of the Olympics, so we will get a good idea of how strong this Olympic team is. On the basketball front, Australia profiles as a top contender to the US Men’s team, with a number of experienced players and long defenders. (Betting Advice: Australia over 12.5 Gold medals, Australia +110 to medal in basketball, a small play on Australia 16 to 20-1 to win Basketball Gold Medal).

Japan: I am fascinated to see how the host do without the backing of home fans. Generally speaking, the host nation does see a boost in Olympic medal performance due to the home crowds and the addition of sports that play in the favor of the host nation (i.e., baseball returning). The sportsbooks have the Japan gold medal proposition at over/under 26.5 with the under heavily juiced. 26.5 gold medals would absolutely shatter their Summer Olympics record of 16 set at 2004 Athens and 1964 Tokyo. They will break that record, but 26.5 is a big ask with team sports such as baseball being more of a toss-up. (Betting advice: Japan under 26.5 gold medals)

South Korea: South Korea is an interesting delegation because the athletes who receive an Olympics medal are exempt from the country's mandatory military service. They’ve been pretty strong in the Olympics and I like the fact that the travel is significantly lesser than most countries competing. This is another country that will get a bunch of medals early via shooting, archery, fencing, and taekwondo. I’m interested in the golf tournament and South Korea has a few prominent golfers that I have made small plays to win gold in the golf tournament. PGA followers are well aware of Sunjae Im and Si Woo Kim who have missed the last several PGA events to ensure they are prepared for the Olympic golf tournament (Betting advice: South Korea over 10.5 medals)

United States: The overwhelming favorite to win the most medals and gold medals, the Americans enter #Tokyo2020 with a slightly lesser delegation than the past couple of Summer games. In both 2012 London and 2016 Rio, the United States walked away with 46 gold medals in each Olympics. The Gold Medal prop tally for the US today sits around 44.5 (which feels fair and is not something I would like to bet). There are a few headliners back, like Simone Biles and Katie Ledecky, who can win a few medals by themselves, but the track team appears to be slightly diminished from the previous Olympics. Basketball comes into the games with a lot of scrutiny, and I will address this in a bit.

Baseball Preview

With a six-team field, half of the teams will medal. The format has two groups of three-team round robin play, followed by a modified double elimination tournament. Unlike basketball, Major League Baseball does not work with the Olympics and players on Major League rosters are not allowed to represent their country as the league does not take an Olympic break. This is a massive misstep in my opinion. Baseball has had a difficult history in the Olympics with it appearing as a demonstration sport 5 times from 1912 to 1988 and then becoming an official Olympic sport from 1992-2008, then being dropped again for 2012 and 2016. They will again be dropped for 2024. One of the reasons baseball hasn’t “worked” is because frankly the best players in the world are not made available. This is not stated to detract from the pool of baseball Olympians, but to acknowledge that the lack of star power is literally preventing baseball from having any staying power at the Olympics. If MLB could basically lend a week to the Olympics every four years, as Hannah Keyser proposes in this Yahoo! Sports article, it would pay enormous dividends in growing the game and really making it a global sport, much like having NBA players in the Olympics help grow that sport globally.

On to the issue at hand, Japan is the betting favorite with former Yankee Masahiro Tanaka and the country benefits with the Japanese league (NPB) taking an Olympic break for the baseball tournament. The United States team is led by former Angels manager Mike Scioscia and features a few MLB free agents with significant experience such as David Robertson, Todd Frazier, and Edwin Jackson, along with veteran minor-leaguers and a few ex-pats playing in the Japanese league. Israel and Mexico are both headlined by accomplished ex-MLB All-Stars Ian Kinsler and Adrian Gonzalez respectively. I have a ton of interest with the Israeli baseball team. There are a few native Israelis on the team, but the squad is heavily boosted with American Jews who have become citizens are now Israeli-Americans. (Betting advice: Japan to win Gold at +350 or better, Israel as a 0.25 unit play to win Gold at +3500 or better).

Basketball Preview

United States (-320). Even though this squad has lesser talent than previous editions, they still sit as a considerable favorite with the games about to kick off. They do have a degree of vulnerability here: Devin Booker, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday are coming off of an exhausting NBA playoff run; Bradley Beal, who was being counted on as a primary scorer, had to leave the team; only Kevin Durant and Draymond Green have significant international hoops experience with Team USA; there is no true center you want to go to war with (Anthony Davis is hurt and many of the other top centers are not American nationals). (Best bet: bet individual games for the United States not to cover large spreads).

Australia (+750): I love this roster and I made a small bet at 20-1 for the Aussies to win gold. That number is gone, but a better way to get involved is to bet Australia to win a medal at +110 odds. Australia has never medaled in men’s hoops, but the roster is fairly loaded making it an excellent opportunity to happen. The starting roster is Dante Exum, Patty Mills, Joe Ingles, Aron Baynes and Jock Landale, with Matthew Dellavedova and Matisse Thybulle as key reserves. All but Landale have extensive NBA experience and Patty Mills has developed superpowers when it comes to the international game. (Best bet: Australia to win a medal at +110)

Spain (+900): Long the United States’ biggest competitor, Spanish basketball is somewhat in a period of transition with the Gasol brothers and Rudy Fernandez well into their mid-30s and the next generation of hoop stars yet to arrive. I am not high on this team. DraftKings Sportsbook offers a market to bet the Best Finishing Position for two specific countries and I am very much interested in betting Australia (-110) over Spain and even France (+115) I see as a team with more upside than Spain. Spain is also +2500 to get eliminated in the Group stage if things really turn out poorly. (Best bet: Australia Bet Finishing Position (-110) over Spain).

Nigeria (+3000): Talk about a talent infusion. Nigeria has several waves of young players entering the NBA. Past Nigierian Olympic teams only had one NBA player, but this roster has seven! I would not call any household names, but solid players nonetheless like Josh Okogie, Jordan Nwora, Gabe Vincent, Mye Oni, and Precious Achiuwa. Achiuwa, Nwora and six other players of Nigierian origin were selected in the 2020 NBA Draft, so the future is bright as well. Nigeria stunned the US in an exhibition game a couple weeks ago and the odds plummeted from 125-1 to win the gold medal and now as low as 30-1. I don’t like betting Nigeria at 30-1 because a lot would still have to go right for them to medal, but I do like betting Nigeria to win Group B (Australia, Italy and Germany) at +450 odds. This allows the bettor to avoid having the US, France, and Spain ruining the gold medal play. (Best bet: Nigeria to win Group B +450)

My full betting card including other Olympic Sports not addressed above:

I would not play standard unit amounts and I recommend setting a budget for how much you want to wager on the Olympics, just given the fact that many events take place at sub-optimal times for the American audience.

ONE UNIT PLAYS:

Australia over 12.5 Gold Medals

Japan under 26.5 Gold Medals

South Korea over 10.5 Gold Medals

Australia to Medal in Men’s Hoops (+110)

HALF UNIT PLAYS:

Mens’ Basketball: Australia Bet Finishing Position (-110) over Spain

Mens’ Basketball: Nigeria to win Group B +450

Baseball: Japan to win a Gold Medal at +200 or better

Russian Olympic Committee (ROC): Over 19.5 Gold Medals

Men’s Track 100m: Trayvon Brommell +110

Women’s Track 100m: Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce -120