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Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps October 13, 2023

Anthony P
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however, these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST; no movement is expected afterward. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your picks if both the model and Sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight. I will also share my thoughts on the games.

RECAP of yesterday's games: We haven't had our best week and we are looking at closing this one on a strong note. We went 1-1 with the plays yesterday.

Tonight, the hockey world's eyes will be on the Capital One Arena. The Pittsburgh Penguins are facing off against the Washington Capitals, and the anticipation is palpable. But before we get into the nitty-gritty of this matchup, let's rewind a bit.

There's a peculiar vibe in the betting world today. Let's talk Memphis. The model's backing them, the sharps are nodding, and even the squares are throwing their weight behind them. But, here's the kicker: despite the overwhelming support for Memphis, the line's jumped from +3 to +5, with whispers of it potentially hitting 5.5. With 80% of the handle backing Memphis, it's enough to make even the most seasoned bettor scratch their head.

Stanford's been the talk of the town. From an opening line of +14.5, the needle's moved to +11.5, though some books are toying with +12.5 and +12. The ticket distribution? Heavily skewed towards Colorado, holding 75% of the tickets, but the handle's split right down the middle. Another big shaker was Utah State's line plummeting from -7 to -4 for Fresno State, even with the sharps divided.

But back to the ice. In the NHL, the Coyotes saw a flutter of sharp activity, with their moneyline pushed from +220 to +199. The Devils, on the other hand, saw some big bets at -225. With the Coyotes and Devils going head-to-head and the latter on a back-to-back, it's intriguing to see so much action on the underdog. Meanwhile, the Penguins' moneyline in Washington sits comfy at -119, but keep your eyes peeled, as that might hike up to -130 as the puck drop approaches.

Here's the big play for the night: the Over 6.5 in Washington. Late-night action from the sharps shifted the juice from -101 to -113, hinting that the Over might be the evening's darling. Though I wouldn't bank on it skyrocketing to 7, it's worth keeping on your radar.

Onto the main event: the Penguins vs. the Capitals. Both teams, in a rarity, missed the playoffs last year. For the Penguins, this was the first miss since Crosby's 2005-06 rookie season. The Capitals? They landed 6th in the Metropolitan division with their goals tally leaving much to be desired. While the Penguins had the upper hand last season with a 2-0-1 record against the Capitals, Jarry's stats against Washington don't inspire much confidence. On the flip side, Kuemper's gearing up for his sophomore year with the Capitals, hoping to shrug off a lukewarm previous season.

With the Capitals nursing injuries last year, this season promises a better outing. The return of heavy hitters like Carlson, Backstrom, and Wilson, combined with the rise of Sandin, hints at a rejuvenated lineup. And while the quest to help Ovechkin break the goal record continues, the team's new coach, Spencer Carbery, might be the spark the Capitals desperately need.

If history is anything to go by, these teams are no strangers to high-scoring games. Over the last 19 face-offs, they've hit the Over 15 times. And with offensive powerhouses on both sides, expect fireworks.

So, what's the play? The Capitals' improved offense, spearheaded by Carbery, promises a high-scoring affair. However, their defense remains suspect. The Penguins, with their summer acquisitions and Crosby's burning ambition, have the edge. Jarry's form and Kuemper's experience will be pivotal. The Capitals might be playing catch-up, but the Penguins, with their revamped roster, look primed for a victory.

Given the shaky defenses on display, the Over 6.5 looks enticing. The Capitals might hold home advantage and have the returning firepower of Backstrom and Oshie, but the Penguins, fueled by their recent acquisitions and Crosby's zeal, seem poised to clinch this.

RECAP: Pittsburgh over 6.5

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