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Eagles vs Commanders Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 29th, 2023


The last time these two teams played was in Week 4 of 2023. That game produced a lot of points, as the visiting Eagles pulled off the road win 34-31. Although the Eagles recorded the win, they failed to cover the -9.0 point spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 43.0 and which the Over hit.

Washington's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 381 adjusted yards per game this year, sliding them into the #5 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #5-most adjusted yards per game (264) against the Commanders. Opposing wide receivers have given the Commanders the most trouble, posting 10.18 adjusted yards per target (#1-worst in football). Washington's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their linebackers, who rank just #30 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. When it comes to their offense, the Commanders check in at #17 in football when it comes to total adjusted yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 254 adjusted yards per game (#9 in football). Their run game has ranked #24 with 3.69 adjusted yards per attempt on the ground.

Philadelphia's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #5 in the league while allowing just 309 adjusted yards per game. Much of their success has been in shutting down the run game, holding opposing ball-carriers to the #3-least adjusted yards per carry: 3.57. That's not to take anything away from their pass defense, though, which checks in at #6 in adjusted yards per target (6.89). The Eagles defensive tackles have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #6-best in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular advantage for Philadelphia given that the Commanders have struggled so much with their run game this year, managing just 3.69 adjusted yards per carry (#9-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Eagles have ranked #9 in the league in total adjusted yards per game. They've passed for 249 adjusted yards per game (#10 in football). On the ground they've ranked #6 with 4.51 adjusted yards per carry.

Eagles Insights

  • When it comes to opening holes for runners (and the importance it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Eagles grades out as the 4th-best in the league last year.

  • The Commanders cornerbacks project as the 5th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

  • The Eagles have been among the top passing teams in football this year (#10 overall), putting up a terrific 249.0 adjusted yards per game through the air.

Commanders Insights

  • Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offensive gameplan to tilt 13.1% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.

  • Curtis Samuel's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 74.2% to 79.3%.

  • Our trusted projections expect Logan Thomas to accumulate 0.22 receiving TDs in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Betting Trends

  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.65 Units / 20% ROI)

  • Brian Robinson has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)


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