Under The Knife with TheSharpSurgeon [3/29/22]

Montreal/Florida UNDER 6.5 +110 (1 Unit) [FANDUEL]

(A) Montreal Canadians (18-37-11) vs. (H) Florida Panthers (44-15-6)
7:00 PM EST

Play:
Montreal/Florida UNDER 6.5 +110 (1 Unit) [FANDUEL]

Model Prediction:

The Florida Panthers have a forecast 67% chance of winning with an over/under of 3.5
Goals
.


Florida Panthers 3 – Montreal Canadians 1


Vegas Prediction/Line
:

The Florida Panthers have a forecast 78% chance of winning with an over/under of 6.5 Goals.


Florida Panthers 4 – Montreal Canadians 2

Previous Games:

(A) Florida Panthers 4 – (H) Montreal Canadians 3 [03/24/22]
(Spencer Knight in Goal for Florida)

(A) Montreal Canadians 2 – Florida Panthers (H) 5 [1/1/22]
(Sam Montembeault in Goal for Montreal)

Expected Goalies:

MON: Jake Allen, 7-17,4, 3.09 GAA, .908 SV %

FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky, 31-6-3, 2.57 GAA, .916 SV %

Schedule:

Montreal: 1 Day Rest
Florida: 1 Day Rest (Returning home after a 7-game road trip)

Assumed Status:
(MON) J. Drouin, LW, OUT
(MON) B. Gallagher, RW, OUT
(MON) J. Petry, D, OUT
(FLA) P. Hornqvist, RW, OUT
(FLA) A. Lundell, C, OUT


Opening Line: FLA -367 / 6.5
Current Line: FLA -400 / 6.5

Public Consensus:  Montreal 23% / Florida 77%


Summary
: We use Sharp's exclusive prediction model as a baseline.

The model predicts Florida to be the favorite (67%) with an over/under of 3.5 Goals. 
This is a huge 3 goal difference from Vegas’s set line of 6.5 Goals.  You can currently get the UNDER 6.5 Goals at Positive money (+110).


Florida is returning home after a 7-game road trip with a day of rest.  Confirmed starting goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky, is averaging 2.2 Goals allowed on average over his last 5 games, with no more than 3 allowed in one game.


Montreal is expected to start goalie Jake Allen.  Jake Allen is averaging 2.8 Goals allowed on
average over his last 5 games, with 2 goals coming from overtime losses.


Montreal’s team total currently is set at Under 2.5 Goals at -150 juice.


Florida’s team total is currently set at Under 4.5 at -140 juice. 


The Panthers will be up against the assumed Goaltender Jake Allen.  Jake Allen put in a beautiful performance in his last game win against the Toronto Maple Leafs.   Despite his team being outshot 51-18, Jake Allen was able to come away with the victory from a 49 Saves, 2 Goals allowed performance.


In the times the model is accurate, it should come off a low-scoring performance on the behalf of the Montreal Canadians.  If in addition, Jake Allen puts on a similar performance as last time, we can expect limited scoring from Florida.  This should result in a tight low scoring game from both teams and an achieved target of an under 6.5 goal total.


Please note that this analysis assumes Jake Allen is the starting goalie for the
Montreal Canadians.  In the case he is not starting, the under bet is not a strongly recommended play.


This analysis was provided by TheSharpSurgeon. 

TheSharpSurgeon is currently +8.68 Units with a 35% ROI on a short 11-16-1
sample. 

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