Under the Knife with TheSharpSurgeon (03/28/22)

Charlotte Hornets ML +145 (1 Unit) [BETMGM]

(A) Denver Nuggets (44-31) [33-41-1 ATS] vs. (H) Charlotte Hornets (39-36) [41-32-2 ATS]
7:00 PM EST

Play:

Charlotte Hornets ML +145 (1 Unit) [BETMGM]

Expected Value:

1 (Unit Size) * (0.69 * 1.45) + (-1 * 0.31) = +0.69 EV

Model Prediction:

Charlotte Hornets have a forecast 69% chance to win with a predicted spread of -8.5 and an over/under of 229.5.

Charlotte Hornets 119 – Denver Nuggets 111

Vegas Prediction/Line:

Denver Nuggets have a forecast 61% chance to win (Charlotte has a 39% chance to win) with a predicted spread of -3.5 and an over/under of 233.5.

Denver Nuggets 119 – Charlotte Hornets 115

Previous Game:

Charlotte Hornets 115 – Denver Nuggets 107 (Dec 23)

Schedule:

Denver: 1 Day Rest after 4 game homestand (2-2)
Charlotte: 0-day rest (win on the road in Brooklyn)

Assumed Status:

(DEN) F. Campazzo OUT
(DEN) J. Green OUT

Opening Line: DEN -165 / 232.5
Current Line: DEN -165 / 233.5

Public Consensus:  Denver 48% / Charlotte 52%

Summary: We use Sharp's exclusive prediction model as a baseline.

The model predicts Charlotte to be the favorite (69%) with a spread of -8.5 and an over/under of 229.5.  This is a 12.5 point score difference and a completely different predicted winner as the favorite.


The model dictates that Charlotte should have a -222 moneyline.  Currently, we can bet Charlotte +145.


Charlotte has experienced previous success against Denver in the 2021/2022
season (1-0).

During their last matchup, Charlotte benefitted from a successful balanced
scoring effort from its starters and bench.  Denver leaned on superstar Jokic, who produced 29 Points and 21 rebounds, but was still unable to secure a victory.  Jokic turned the ball over 6 times this game.


Denver ranks 22nd/30 in turnovers made.  Charlotte ranks 5th/30 in steals made.


Charlotte is currently battling for the 8th playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  Every Hornets game is crucial and maximum effort should be given for every game going forward.


Charlotte has won 7 of their last 8 games. 

Looking at 14 similar models, with a prediction scoring standard deviation of
2.28, we find seven models supporting a Charlotte spread outside the standard
deviation and zero supporting Denver.

It is currently recommended to take Charlotte moneyline +145, however, Charlotte
+4 ATS and even alternative spreads in favor of Charlotte should still produce
highly +EV results.


This analysis was provided by TheSharpSurgeon. 

TheSharpSurgeon is currently +10.93 Units with a 48% ROI on a short 11-13-1
sample. 

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