Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 6, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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RECAP: Monday should be a relatively quiet and stress-free day for betting and DFS. We have 1 NHL game and a small 6 game slate in MLB. The early weather forecast is showing little rain in Cincinnati but the rest of the games look to be pretty smooth. Let's take a look if the shapes have been active.

The Oilers are facing elimination and they will be without Kane who is suspended. I was very surprised that he hasn't done anything stupid since arriving in Edmonton. Now, he puts his team in a tough spot. Kane was switched to the 2nd line to play a more defensive game and he overachieved by keeping on scoring goals. The Oilers rebalanced their lines in game 3 by putting Kane with McDavid and Kassian. The team skated for 25 minutes today and followed with a team meeting. Unfortunately, there is no news on what the lines will look like for Monday's game. Looking at the data from the book, there is no sharp money on any side but the total saw some on both the over and the under. It's pretty much been like this since game 2. Some even wrote to me today asking me how I feel about the total at 6.5 and to be honest I didn't really have the answer. The Avs dominated the series in all 3 zones, have regrouped in defense and are getting secondary scoring. Francouz is due for some regression and the Oilers offense was contained to 2 goals in their last 2 games and should come out strong. Fanduel has the total at 7 while market maker Betonline has it at 6.5. Some US books received some interest on the under 7 and others on the over 6.5. My lean would be Colorado and the over 6.5 however I also like a bet on Edmonton to score 1st. I will update this section in the morning if there are any changes.

In the MLB, the early data for tomorrow's sharp report looks like there is sharp money on the under 8.5 in Houston. The total is still at 8.5 and should go down unless we receive heavy money on the over overnight. The issue here is Robby Ray. He will pitch a great game and then allow 3-4 runs in one inning, just like that. He did vs Baltimore, Boston, Seattle.....He also sucks on the road with his ERA close to 6 and 65% of his earned runs have been given up on the road thi year. Javier has been great since giving up 7 ER back on May 13th vs the Nationals. Since then he allowed 2 ERs in his last 3 games on a sample size of 15 innings however those games were versus OAK, CLE and TEX. Seattle might have the 22nd best offense however 9th in wRC+ in the last 14 days and scored 31 runs in the last 6 games. They also have the 6th best wRC+ vs RHP. Anyway, let's just say that Javier should be challenged a little more than in his last 3 outings. My model has this game at 9.84 and does not agree with the sharp money. This will be another edition of Sharp vs Model! Which side are you on?

Good luck today

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