<h4>Opening Line</h4>The opening line at a sportsbook is the initial set of odds offered on a particular sporting event. Most sportsbooks use computer programs or algorithms to help generate odds and lines. These programs often rely on data and statistical analysis to determine the probability of each team or athlete winning.&nbsp;Once the opening line is set, it can be adjusted based on the volume and type of bets being placed, as well as other factors that may affect the outcome of the event. For example, if a significant number of bets are placed on one team, the sportsbook may adjust the odds to balance the risk and protect against potential losses.<h4>Sharp Money Moving a Line</h4>&quot;Sharp money&quot; refers to bets placed by professional or knowledgeable bettors, who are often referred to as &quot;sharps.&quot; Sharps are often very knowledgeable about the teams or athletes involved in a particular event and may have insights that are not reflected in the initial lines or odds offered by a sportsbook.If a sportsbook detects that sharp bettors are heavily betting on one side of a bet, it may adjust the line to protect against potential losses. This is because sharp bettors are often seen as more reliable indicators of the true probability of an event than the general betting public, who may be influenced by factors such as bias or emotions.For example, if a sportsbook receives a large number of bets on one team from sharp bettors, it may adjust the line to attract more bets on the other team. This helps the sportsbook balance the risk of accepting bets and protect against potential losses.Overall, sharp money can impact line movement at a sportsbook, but it is only one factor that is considered when adjusting lines. Sportsbooks also consider other factors, such as changes in the underlying event, the betting patterns of the general public, and the need to balance the risk of accepting bets. Sharp app pro subscribers have seen this first hand. Our Top Prop NBA bets can move the line rather quickly.<h4>Reading Line Moves</h4>Line moves can be an important tool for sports bettors because they can provide insight into the betting patterns and expectations of other bettors and the sportsbook itself. By understanding the factors driving line moves, bettors can better understand the true probability of an event and potentially make more informed betting decisions.<ol><li>Look for reverse line moves:&nbsp;A reverse line move occurs when the line moves in the opposite direction of where the money is being bet. This can indicate that sharp bettors, who are often seen as more knowledgeable and reliable indicators of the true probability of an event, are heavily betting on that side. You can read the Sharp Report in the content section of the Sharp App to see where the sharps and public (squares) are putting their money. Look at the handles in the game center for the bet%(# of tickets) and money% being bet on each side. If the line seems to be moving against where the money is being bet, it may indicate sharp money.</li><li>Monitor line moves over time:Lines can frequently change, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. By monitoring line moves over time, bettors can better understand the overall trend and make more informed betting decisions. When viewing the gamecenter in the app, you will see a chart of the line moves from the open up until the current line.</li><li>Watch out for steam:A steam move refers to a sudden and significant line move in a particular betting market. These moves are often caused by a large number of bets being placed on one side of a game, which can result in the line moving quickly and dramatically. Steam moves are often associated with sharp or professional bettors.</li><li>Consider other factors:In addition to line moves, bettors should also consider other factors that may affect the outcome of the event, such as injuries, weather conditions, and home-field advantage. By taking these factors into account, bettors can get a complete picture of the true probability of the event.</li></ol><h4>Conclusion</h4>Line moves can be a valuable tool for sports bettors looking to gain an edge in their betting. By understanding how and why lines move, and using advanced betting strategies, bettors can better understand the betting patterns and expectations of other bettors and the sportsbook. By considering these factors, bettors can make more informed betting decisions and potentially increase their chances of winning. The Sharp App gives you the same information the professionals use when analyzing line moves.<a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Join thousands of like minded sports bettors along with the pros in our discord to learn more about how to read line moves.</a>

How Can A Bettor Use Line Movements To Make Sharper Bets?

<h4>How Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling in the Sharp App are Helping Sports Bettors</h4>The Sharp App is a comprehensive sports betting information app that offers users a range of tools, models, content, expert picks, props, bet tracking and AI-powered models to help them make informed betting decisions. One of the key ways that the Sharp App is leveraging technology to improve sports betting is through the use of data analysis and predictive modeling. In this article, we'll explore how these technologies are being used in the Sharp App and the benefits they offer to users.<h4>What are Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling?</h4>Data analysis is the process of examining large amounts of data to identify patterns and trends. This can be done manually, but more commonly, it is done using specialized software tools that can quickly process and analyze large datasets. On the other hand, predictive modeling involves using data analysis to build models that can predict future outcomes. For example, based on past performance data, a predictive model might be used to predict the likelihood of a particular sports team winning a game.<h4>How are Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling Used in the Sharp App?</h4>The Sharp App uses data analysis and predictive modeling in several ways, including:<ol><li>Predictive models: The Sharp App offers users access to various predictive models built by our pros to help them make more informed betting decisions. These models use data analysis to identify trends and patterns that might influence the outcome of a game and provide users with probabilities for each outcome.</li><li>Expert picks: The Sharp App also offers users access to expert picks from industry professionals who use data analysis and predictive modeling to make informed betting recommendations.</li><li>Props: The Sharp App offers an analysis of props that are based on data analysis and predictive modeling. The Top Props article and Top Props tool in the Sharp App provide users with the daily bets our models and experts think are the best value.</li><li>AI-powered features: AI and machine learning are used in the Sharp App in a variety of ways, including creating advanced predictive models that analyze large amounts of data on teams, players, and past games to identify trends and patterns that might influence the outcome of a game; suggesting bets to users, and identifying value bets. By leveraging the power of AI and advanced data analysis, the Sharp App provides users with more accurate and detailed predictions that help them make more informed betting decisions.</li><li>Bet Tracking: The Sharp App's bet tracking feature is another way that data analysis and predictive modeling are being used to improve sports betting. This feature allows users to keep track of the size, the odds, and the outcome of their bets. By analyzing this data, users can identify trends and patterns in their betting behavior and adjust their betting strategy if needed. Overall, the bet tracking feature is a valuable tool for users who want to understand their betting habits better and improve their chances of success.</li></ol>Overall, the data analysis and predictive modeling features of the Sharp App are designed to help users make more informed and accurate betting decisions and increase their chances of success.<a href="https://discord.gg/sharp-app-sports-betting-750497266552537217" title="">Join the thousands in our discord and talk to our pros about how the Sharp App works and how it can benefit you.</a>

How Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling in the Sharp App are Helping Sports Bettors

This lesson from the Sharp Academy Statsational discusses what Pythagorean Win Expectation is, how to calculate it, and how to implement it in your handicapping.The formula for Pythah Win Expectations in the NFL is(Points For*2.37/(Points For^2.37+Points Ag^2.37))*17If you have any questions on this, or any video, contact @statsational in our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">discord</a>.

How To Use Pythagorean Win Expectations

There is no more important aspect of betting than value. No matter what the risk endeavor you need to know what the probability is of the outcome you want and compare that to the price you are getting. This concept is not just for sports betting. If you watch Shark Tank you will see the sharks are trying to put a value on a company. They would invest in most companies if the value was such to make the deal worth their while.In sports every side of a bet has value potentially. If I had a 3 point shooting contest with Steph Curry you may not want to bet on me even up, but if the odds got high enough there would be a number you would want to take a shot on me winning at.

What is Value Betting in Sports?

Any time you are putting money at risk, you should be doing so with an expected value that is positive. This is how professional gamblers bet. They look for an edge and try to exploit as many of these edges as possible over time. When betting props, often I will be on the opposite side the projections are saying we should be. But that is based on what the payoff is on each side.

Can Betting Against Your Prop Projection Be Right?

Using Implied Probabilities we can get an edge on the competition in all sorts of pools. In this video, Statsational will show you how to use the Implied Odds to help with your NFL playoff Survivor pools and also fantasy pools.<a href="https://dksb.sng.link/As9kz/4n7i?_dl=https%3A%2F%2Fsportsbook.draftkings.com%2Fgateway%3Fs%3D857632325%26wpcid%3D172660%26wpcn%3DNFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7%26wpsrc%3DThe%2520Sharp%2520App%26wpcrid%3D&pcid=172660&pcn=NFL2021_5FTD1000DB_L7&psn=The+Sharp+App" title="">Get odds from Draftkings</a><a href="http://wlwilliamhillus.adsrv.eacdn.com/C.ashx?btag=a_1166b_1740c_&affid=174&siteid=1166&adid=1740&c=" title="">Get odds from Caesars</a><a href="https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1659599" title="">Get odds from BetMGM</a>

NFL Playoff Strategies and Tips To Win Your Pool | Scratchin and Survivn with Statsational

The basics on how to bet on the spread in sports betting. Here is the formula to calculate what the breakeven point for the &quot;juice&quot; would be. The formula for a minus juice (a negative number i.e. -110)-line/(100-line)The formula for plus juice (a positive number i.e. +105)100/(100+line) In the video, John talks about -110 juice being a 52.4% breakeven point. -(-110)/(100-(-110))110/210=52.4%For +105 juice 100/(105+100)100/205 = 48.8%To learn more about sports betting join our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord chat</a>

Beginner Level

How to bet against the "Spread" - Beginner Level Lesson 1

I will explain to you how the money line works in sports betting.The money line bet is a straight-up bet on which team or player will win a game. The only thing that matters is that they win. They do not need to win by a certain amount of points, like a spread bet. You probably made bets like this in the past with friends. In the video, we go over an example bet on shooting a free throw.Moneyline betting is the simplest form of betting. You just need to pick a winner.The video will also go into detail on how the money line is used to calculate the probability of an event occurring and vice versa.If you have money line questions or want to learn more about sports betting head on over to our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a>

Moneyline Bet Explained - Beginner Level Lesson 2

One of the more overlooked yet most important aspects of gambling is sports betting bankroll management and money management.The most important thing for every business is to stay in business.&nbsp; It is impossible to make money when you have to lock your doors.&nbsp; As a sports bettor, this applies to you as well.&nbsp; You need to treat your sports betting like a business.&nbsp; If you have no money to bet with you can no longer make money. So more important than anything else is sports betting bankroll management.<ul><li>Set aside a certain amount for each season, sport, month or any other way you want to do it.&nbsp; The most important thing is to actually put that money on the side.&nbsp; This is not the money you need for daily expenses.&nbsp; The funds here are strictly for sports betting.</li><li>Based on your bankroll you will risk 1-2% of it per bet.&nbsp; As a casual player, you do not want to risk any more than that.&nbsp; Once you build a model that works and you have an edge you may vary bet sizes.</li><li>For ML bets you will want to focus on the &ldquo;to risk&rdquo; number and not the &ldquo;to win&rdquo; number.&nbsp; Again, this will change when you get to be more advanced but for now, you want to keep the risks minimal.&nbsp; For beginners, I suggest betting to WIN 1% to 2% of your bankroll or your typical unit size.&nbsp; &nbsp;For a -200 favorite, you&rsquo;ll be risking 2 units to win 1 unit. For a +200 dog, you&rsquo;ll be risking .5 units to win 1 unit.</li><li>You could &ldquo;reset&rdquo; your bankroll after certain periods of time.&nbsp; For instance each month you can assess where you are and update your bankroll and as such your base bet amount.&nbsp; If you start with a $5,000 bankroll and win $500 over the course of a month you can up your bets by 10%.&nbsp; If you were betting $100 per game you can now increase to $110.&nbsp; The caveat here is you must be banking the winnings.&nbsp; Just because you won $500 doesn&rsquo;t mean you have $500 unless you added it to your bankroll.</li></ul>&nbsp;Before getting into some more advanced strategies I use to determine my bet sizing I want you to understand the bullet points above and why I think sports betting risk management is important.Almost everyone who has bet on sports for any significant amount of time, myself included, has chased a bad streak and bet way more than they should be betting to &ldquo;get it all back&rdquo;.&nbsp; Back in 1997, I was betting games for $50 to $100 a game.&nbsp; It was very recreational.&nbsp; Based on my rules above I was still betting more than I really could afford to bet but on a per-game basis, it really didn&rsquo;t seem like a lot.One bored Tuesday night I decided to play some NBA.&nbsp; I forget the exact game but I know it was a bad beat that started to put me on tilt.&nbsp; I was only down $55 on Wednesday but I was determined to get it back.&nbsp; Of course, I lost on Wednesday and Thursday and was now down approximately $500.&nbsp; While I had the $500 I really wasn&rsquo;t keen on parting with it.&nbsp; I thought perhaps I could bet some NHL favorites on the money line to get my $500 back.&nbsp; Now mind you I did not follow hockey very closely and I had never bet on the NHL before but this was my master plan to get back to even.&nbsp; I call in my 3 NHL ML favorite bets for $200 each.&nbsp; Surely they would all win and I could get back to even, or close to it, and then bet my $50-$100 again as if nothing happened.&nbsp; In case you could not guess they all lost.I was now down over the limit I could bet per game.&nbsp; I think it was only $500 and they allowed me to go up to $1000 which was still less than I owed.&nbsp; I was watching the NHL games lose at a bar with some friends.&nbsp; As the drinks flowed I started to pump myself up for the 2 Saturday NFL games that were being played the next day.&nbsp; The Giants were hosting the Redskins in the early game.&nbsp; By the time 3 AM rolled around I was confident the Giants would roll Washington.&nbsp; The plan was to put $1000 on the Giants and that would get me back to a number just a couple of days earlier I was pissed about owing.&nbsp; But hey it is all about perspective.In my early 20&rsquo;s waking up early after a night of drinking without setting an alarm was never happening.&nbsp; This Saturday was no different.&nbsp; I woke up at 12:35 PM and the Giants kicked off at 12:30 PM.&nbsp; I tried calling the bookie but they would not take the action.&nbsp; As the Giants were rolling on their way to a 30-10 win I sat there depressed that I finally had the winner and I missed the bet.A buddy of mine had an uncle who was a bookmaker working in Aruba.&nbsp; He would on occasion let us know who the sharp guys liked.&nbsp; I needed his help now more than ever.&nbsp; I called Uncle Dino and asked him who the sharps liked.&nbsp; He tells me they are on Kentucky in college hoops.&nbsp; Kentucky was a 17 point favorite over Georgia Tech at home.&nbsp; The game started at 2:00 PM.&nbsp; I decide I will put $500 on Kentucky to cover on the advice of Uncle Dino.&nbsp; I do not believe at any point in the game was Kentucky covering the 17.&nbsp; They wound up winning by 14.&nbsp; The hole had been dug even deeper.I had no opinion of the second NFL game of the day New England and Pittsburgh.&nbsp; I tried Dino again.&nbsp; He said the sharps aren&rsquo;t taking the game but every sucker likes Pittsburgh +2.&nbsp; Looks like the Patriots will be bailing me out.&nbsp; I call the bookie and ask if I can put $1500 on the game.&nbsp; They allow it.&nbsp; I take the Patriots -2 for $1500.&nbsp; Up 21-13, Drew Bledsoe is facing a 3rd and 7 with just over 2 minutes left in the game at midfield.&nbsp; The Steelers call their final timeout.&nbsp; The situation screamed for a pass to get the first down and end the game.&nbsp; I turn to my buddy and said, we need a pass but let it be over the middle in case it is picked so less chance they can return it.&nbsp; No sooner do I say it Bledsoe gets picked on the sideline and nearly returned for a TD.&nbsp; There was an illegal forward pitch on the return so the ball ends up on the 18-yard line.&nbsp; I do not know why but I was still optimistic. Even if they scored they still needed to convert the 2 pts or else I push and if they convert I can win in OT.&nbsp; With 38 seconds to go 3rd and goal from the 1, Kordell Stewart passes to TE Mark Bruener for the 1 yard TD.&nbsp; The two-point conversion was successful and we were heading to OT.&nbsp; My hopes of winning the coin flip were quickly erased and the Steelers would get the ball first.&nbsp; Now I needed a stop.&nbsp; The Steelers would start on their own 26-yard line.&nbsp; First down was incomplete.&nbsp; They ran it to Bettis on second down for a 5-yard loss.&nbsp; I am feeling really good now.&nbsp; We are going to stop them and get good field position to win this game.&nbsp; 3rd and 15 from the 21 Stewart connects with Courtney Hawkins for 41 yards and right on the cusp of FG range.&nbsp; Pitt would move the ball 25 more yards to make the game-winning chip shot FG and crush me yet again.&nbsp; After that game, I made the smartest move I had all week and that was to call it quits and pay off what I owed.&nbsp; It would be months before I would bet a game again because I did not have the funds to do so.That story is funny in retrospect and many of you have your own similar stories.&nbsp; The key point of it is how starting with a $50 bet can snowball into betting $1500 just to break even or minimize the losses.&nbsp; Chasing a bad streak can get costly very quickly.&nbsp; Since that time I learned to be much more disciplined.&nbsp; And certainly doing it professionally you are either disciplined or you will go broke very quickly.&nbsp; In my story above I had no set bankroll so I am not sure even a $50 bet was the proper bet size for me.&nbsp; But I know $200 wasn&rsquo;t and $1500 was probably more than I was willing to risk for the season let alone one game.&nbsp; For argument&rsquo;s sake, let&rsquo;s say I had a $2000 bankroll.&nbsp; I should have been betting $40 per game.&nbsp; The bad beat on Tuesday would have had me down $44.&nbsp; By Friday I would have been down $132.&nbsp; I wouldn&rsquo;t have chased with the NHL games that I knew little about.&nbsp; Assuming I wake up at a decent hour I put $44 on the giants and win to knock my total to -$88.&nbsp; I never touch Kentucky or the Patriots because I would not be searching for a game to get me out of a major hole.&nbsp; I am not sure how I would have fared on Sunday in the NFL but there is a decent chance I would have been able to get close to even if not make a few bucks.&nbsp; Instead, the lack of discipline caused me to lose over $3000 and quit doing something I enjoyed doing.I said I would give some more advanced techniques I use when it comes to bet sizing.&nbsp; In my rules above I said you should be betting to WIN 1 unit, not risk.&nbsp; The reason for this is there may be great value in a +2000 bet but it still won&rsquo;t win very often.&nbsp; Risking 1 unit on something that will happen once in 20 tries is a good way to go broke quickly.Some of the most money I have ever made in sports betting was on the World Cup in 2014.&nbsp; The biggest winner I had was on Costa Rica to win their Group.&nbsp; My numbers did not think Costa Rica would win but it showed the price being offered was better than it should have been.&nbsp; In other words, there was value there.&nbsp; The line to win the group was +4000.&nbsp; I estimated their likelihood of winning the group at 10%.&nbsp; &nbsp;At 40 to 1 the market was giving them a 2.43% chance to win.&nbsp; Even if my numbers were correct there was a pretty high probability they were not going to win.&nbsp; But I have a huge edge here and when I see an edge I exploit it.&nbsp; The primary reason for this edge was who comprised the group with Costa Rica.&nbsp; They were put in with England, Italy, and Uruguay.&nbsp; Basically 3 teams with championship dreams and Costa Rica.&nbsp; But because the public overvalues these big names we found value in a country nobody expected anything from.Let&rsquo;s look the way I played this and how I play all money line bets in which I have a perceived edge.Firstly I want to figure out how much of an edge I have.&nbsp; I like to figure out my expected value.&nbsp; I will go into more detail on expected value in a future post but essentially it was what you can expect to win or lose each time you play this scenario.To make it easy we will use a unit size of $1,000 and at 40 to 1 the risk would normally be $25 to win $1000$1000 * 10%(my probability to win) &ndash; $25 * 90%(my probability to lose) = $77.5Over time I can expect to make $77.5 on this bet.&nbsp; That is a pretty nice return on $25 of risk.&nbsp; Because of this, I want to play a bit more aggressively.&nbsp; Typically you will not see an edge this large.&nbsp; I am usually looking for a 5% edge or more before I play a game.&nbsp; But in this case, I had a 310% edge.&nbsp; Depending upon how much risk you want to take on you need to figure out how much more you will play based on the edge you have.&nbsp; The riskiest strategy I would employ is for every 5% of edge you increase by 1 unit to win.&nbsp; If we had an edge of 10% the bet size would double to $50.&nbsp; This actually works fairly well most of the time because finding edges much greater than 10-20% are tough to come by.&nbsp; But in a situation like this, I would actually be risking 1.55x my unit size on a 40 to 1 bet.&nbsp; That is just too much risk for me.&nbsp; You could change the ratio of edge to unit size increase.&nbsp; Perhaps every 10% or 20% increase in edge constitutes an increase in 1 unit to win.&nbsp; Or you can cap it at a certain amount.&nbsp; For this bet, I capped my risk at $200 which is 8x what a normal bet would be.&nbsp; What also needed to be factored in was I would be betting on CR to advance as well as most games have them as a win bet.&nbsp; So, on the whole, I had a lot of risk on one team.Costa Rica wound up winning their group.&nbsp; My European colleagues thought I was some sort of clairvoyant. Our Paris office wanted to know how I knew it would happen.&nbsp; &nbsp;In actuality, I didn&rsquo;t know they would win.&nbsp; I just knew the line was off. I was lucky that my 1 in 10 shot came in.&nbsp; &nbsp;The bets to have them advance obviously paid off as well as did the bets on their matches.That brings me to my portfolio risk.&nbsp; My background is in currency trading.&nbsp; With currencies, you are buying and selling one currency against another.&nbsp; If I am bullish on the Candian Dollar against the US Dollar and take positions backing my view I need to know what my total exposure is to Candian Dollar in my entire portfolio.&nbsp; Perhaps I am long against other currencies as well and I do not want to put too much risk on one currency.&nbsp; Factoring in your total risk on a side is important in determining bet sizing.&nbsp; If you like a side ATS as well as in a teaser and also in a parlay well a normal 1 unit bet on each is exposing you more than you want to be exposed on that side.&nbsp; You will have 3 units at risk when you really wanted approximately 1 unit.&nbsp; On the parlay assuming 2 teams at -110 that pays out +260 you will be risking enough to win 1 unit normally.&nbsp; That would be about .4 units.&nbsp; If one side is going to be played ATS and in a teaser maybe we cut that bet by 33%.&nbsp; We now have a risk of .07 units on the parlay with .33 units on the ATS and .33 on the teaser.&nbsp; The total risk on this side is now .73 units.There is obviously some leeway to exactly how you want to manage your risk but understand you actually have to manage your risk!&nbsp; These tips and examples will hopefully start you on the right path to profitability and longevity.

Bankroll Management - Beginner Level Lesson 3

Sports betting is more than just picking the right team. Get some tips on how to become a winning sports bettor from John &quot;Statsational&quot; Alesia. Learn sports betting strategies and tips to further your sports betting education.In this video✓Ego and its effects on your mental state✓Betting on softer early lines✓Why Do Lines Move?✓Bet on Sports not everyone else is betting on✓Have multiple sportsbooks✓Track your bets with a bet trackerSome other videos of interest<a href="https://youtu.be/5bd6jW30AmM" title="">Bankroll Management</a><a href="https://youtu.be/GNG_NXllmME" title="">Props 1</a><a href="https://youtu.be/6KAOx26hEB8" title="">Props 2</a>J<a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">oin the Sports Bet Army in Discord</a>

Sports Betting Tips and Strategies - Beginner Level Lesson 4

Totals wagers are more commonly referred to as an Over/Under bet. The name of the wager is interchangeable and both are used in sportsbooks. A totals bet is one of the easiest and most popular bets to make when betting on sports. The only bet that is more popular is spread betting. You can bet totals on most major professional sports such as football, basketball, baseball, and hockey.In most cases, when wagering on a total the bettor is simply choosing whether the total number of points scored by both teams will be over or under the listed total of points to be scored. That&rsquo;s it. The winner and loser of the game don&rsquo;t matter in a totals bet. The only thing that matters with this kind of bet is the number of points (runs, goals, etc.) scored.To learn more about betting totals head over to our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a> and join the discussion

How To Bet On Totals and Over Unders - Beginner Level Lesson 5

Teasers may seem more complicated than they really are. A teaser is nothing more than a parlay on an alternative line on a sports bet spread or total. In this quick video, we break down exactly what teasers are and how to play them.If you have teaser questions or want to learn more about sports betting head on over to our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a>

How to bet Teasers - Beginner Level Lesson 6

Sports bettors may come across instances where they can bet a 3-way line or a 2-way line on the same event. Understanding the differences between the two and how we can calculate our edge on each bet is vital to becoming a more profitable sports bettor.In our Sports betting educational series, we have some videos you may want to watch first to understand some of the calculations in this video.<a href="https://youtu.be/rFVkIyPcZVA" title="">Calculating Money Lines</a><a href="https://youtu.be/LgXqZLpy_hI" title="">Expected Value</a><a href="https://discord.gg/P8YqrRUn" title="">Our free DIscord</a>. After joining @statsational and say hi

Sports Betting a 3-Way Line Explained - Beginner Level Lesson 7

When betting on sports a parlay can be a useful tool in the toolbox. Some people like to use parlays like a lottery ticket but in this video, I will explain exactly what a parlay is, how to calculate them, when and why you would want to use them.If you have teaser questions or want to learn more about sports betting head on over to our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a>

How To Bet Parlays - Beginner Level Lesson 9

Learn how to bet on futures in sports betting. Why are futures bets made and what are the pros and cons of betting futures on sports.<a href="https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCManN64frKuqX1s2SXid9yKzkRpsAhIx" title="">You may want to check our education playlist for videos that will go along with this one</a><a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">To join Statsational in the Sports Bet Army discord channel</a>

What Are Futures Bets? - Beginner Level Lesson 8

Expected Value in sports betting is one of the most important concepts when trying to make a profit. Understanding the expected value when analyzing potential bets will guide you in making sharper bets over time. In this video the expected value is explained as well as calculated for you. Understand how you should be using EV to determine which bets you should be making.

Intermediate Level

What is Expected Value - Intermediate Level Lesson 1

Flat betting and variable bet sizing can both be profitable in sports betting. Variable sports bets can be riskier and require a bit more sophistication. In this video learn how to develop a variable bet sizing strategy that fits you.Join us in our free <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a> to learn more about bet sizing and all things sports betting

Flat vs Variable Bet Sizing - Intermediate Level Lesson 2

There are occasions where a sports bettor can wager on both sides of a game and guarantee themselves a profit over time. These situations are called middling. The sports bettor has a good enough price on the underdog and the favorite in which they can place bets on both and over the long haul guarantee themselves a profit. These situations are rare but in this video, you can see how you need to calculate them to find out which are profitable.<a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Join this discussion in discord with the guys at Sports Bet Army</a>

What is Middling? - Intermediate Level Lesson 3

Hedging your bets is a popular term but should you be doing it when betting on sports? We take a look at this question a bit deeper in this lesson in our Sharp Academy - Sports Betting Explained series.1 - Know why you are making the original bet2 - Use a proper bet size3 - What is the psychology behind wanting to hedge?4 - How do we calculate whether or not a hedge bet is worth playing5 - What about situations we can catch a middle?6 - How do I figure out if a payout offered by the sportsbook is worth taking?

Intermediate

To Hedge Or Not To Hedge? - Intermediate Level Lesson 4

Winning at sports betting is tough enough without having to pay more than you should be to the sportsbooks. Figuring out how much the sportsbooks are keeping in &quot;hold&quot; is a good way to determine which sportsbooks are giving the best prices on a futures bet.We will look at hold and how you can determine a fair line. Also, find out how advantageous it is to have multiple sportsbooks.<a href="https://youtu.be/LgXqZLpy_hI" title="">Want To See How We Calculate EV?</a><a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Join our free discord to learn more about sports betting and get some free picks</a>

What Is Hold? - Intermediate Level Lesson 5

When betting on sports, there are more factors to think about than just who you think is the best team. Most people look past the future value of their money when betting on futures. In this lesson from the Sharp Academy John &quot;Statsational&quot; Alesia will discuss how to calculate the future value of money and how that needs to be added into your expected value calculations.<a href="https://youtu.be/LgXqZLpy_hI" title="">Expected Value Video</a><a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Join our Discord For Free</a>

How To Use Future Value Of Money In Your Handicapping | Intermediate Level Lesson 6

The team at Sharp has a ton of experience in all forms of gambling over the years but everyone can benefit from talking about basic tentets for successful players. One of the biggest pitfalls can be gambler's fallacy, or believing that past outcomes have any effect on future probabilities. You can check out a video on this subject in the <a href="https://sharpbets.app/education/" title="">Sharp Academy</a> as well. For instance, if you flip a coin and it lands on head three times in a row, the cahnces of heads on the fourth toss do not change in any respect. Falling prey to gambler's fallacy can devestate your bankroll in a hurry. One of the more important aspects of gambling is to understand the amount of money you have to play with and what you are comfortable to lose. Sure, this sounds like basic advice and it is but so many people hit a few bets and things just go right out the window. Realistically, it's understandable. Is there a better feeling than hitting that player prop? Seeing those chips slide across a table into your pile atfer winning a hand at blackjack or poker? How about a team hitting a basket as time expires to cash the underdog that you've been sweating all game? When those outcomes happen, you're invincible and any bet can be made, and won.The worst possible thing at those moments is being irresponsible with the bankroll. All the coaches here talk in terms of units but that has to be controlled by the individual player. One unit for a coach may not be the same amount in one unit for your bet, and that is totally fine! We're all on one team but the important factor is you stick with that measurement. If you win 4-5 bets in a row, that doesn't mean the next bet is five units because you have a &quot;hot hand&quot;. If you lose that next bet, you've given back everything you've just won and potentially more than that. If that's the routine, the success in this field will be so much harder to come by. If you've been in the Discord with us, coaches may appear to brush off a bad night fairly easily. It's never fun to have a bad day at the book and get a lot of things wrong but the one constant is every player will have down days. Las Vegas didn't build that city on being wrong a lot of the time. This is a hard field to be a successful part of but when you handle the bankroll responsibly, one bad day doesn't hurt because it's not a large chunk of your money. We're all here to help educate our members as much as we can, and be somewhat entertaining (we hope) and this isn't to tell you to not gamble. It's an absolute blast to find all sorts of wagers to try and exploit weaknesses that sports books have, and they do still have them. It's just always important to remember basic foundations of success. Let's celebrate the bets we hit without runining our bankrolls so we can continue to grow it all the time. Gambler's fallacy is always lurking around that winning bet to drain the bank but don't let it. Keep a level head and you'll already be ahead of a good chunk of the rest of the industry.

Gambler's Fallacy and Your Bankroll 

NBA Prop betting is quickly becoming one of the most popular forms of sports betting. Understanding the value of each prop is essential to making a profit on props. Watch this simple tutorial on how to calculate the value of a prop and determine whether you should be making a bet or not.<a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Join Our Discord Discussion</a>

Advanced

How to Find The Most Profitable Props in NBA and More - Advanced Lesson 2

Most of today's profitable sports bettors are using models to help them handicap. In this lesson in the Sharp Academy, you will learn how to build a Linear Regression model.Using the Linear Regression model you can find out which statistics have the most predictive qualities for any sport you are modeling. Combine these stats to build a model that can tell you what the scoring margin (spread) should be. Compare that to the actual line and see if there is value to be had.As you improve your skills you will get more creative and build better models. <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">We would love to help you with any questions you may have. Join our discord chat, for free, to ask questions and meet our coaches as well as fellow sports handicappers like yourself</a>.<a href="https://sharpbets.app" title="">Check out our website</a>

Make Money Building A Simple Sports Betting Model | Linear Regression Advanced Lesson 3

Finding value is how professional sports bettors determine which games they are going to bet on. It is a simple concept but one that is hard to execute. In this lesson from our Sharp Academy series, we show you how to calculate the line for the game and total once you have an expected score projected for each team.This method is going to work for low scoring sports like NHL, MLB and soccer. For NFL and NBA we will have different methods to determine value when handicapping.

Create Your Own Lines - Advanced Level Lesson 4

With so many prop bets being offered at sportsbooks, they have become a popular bet for sports bettors. Those with a background in DFS or fantasy sports like football or basketball will take to prop betting quite easily.You may be able to calculate your own fantasy projections or you may get projections from a reliable source. What you may not know how to do is calculate what the fair line should be based on that projection. In this video John &quot;Statsational&quot; Alesia will take you through the way to calculate many of these prop bets using Poisson.If you have prop betting questions or want to learn more about sports betting head on over to our <a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Discord Chat</a>

Calculating Props In Sports Betting - Poisson Distribution - Advanced Level Lesson 1

The gambler's fallacy is the belief that the chances of something happening with a fixed probability become higher or lower as the process is repeated. People who commit the gambler's fallacy believe that past events affect the probability of something happening in the future. -Investopedia&nbsp;I was playing golf with a friend of mine who brought along one of his co-workers. He was a nice guy, and we got to talking during the round. I found out that he enjoyed going to Atlantic City and playing craps. After the round, we got into some strategies that he had at the craps table at the bar. I enjoy playing craps recreationally, as I know it is an impossible game to beat over time. But there is no more enjoyable game in the casino when you are at a lively table. I'm always curious to hear people's strategies when it comes to table games. There are people out there who think they have a system that can beat these games when statistically, it is impossible. This guy proceeded to tell me his strategy where he would be betting more after a certain amount of sevens came out. His theory was that only so many sevens could come out in a given number of rolls. This thinking is the gambler's fallacy.If you have the time write down what you would imagine 100 random coin tosses will look like. Now flip a coin 100 times, writing down the result of each coin flip. The chances are both of these lists look dramatically different. When doing this exercise, most people will never account for the actual number of heads or tails that will show up in succession. We are biased in our thinking that a 50/50 proposition means that only so many heads or tails can come in a row before flipping to the other side. If you look at your results from the actual coin tosses, you will notice you probably had five, six, maybe even seven straight flips of one or the other in a row.&nbsp;I did it for you in Excel for those who did not want to take the time to flip a coin 100 times by using a random number generator.As you can see, there were several occasions where we went on a run of heads or tails, with the longest being seven heads in a row from flip 70-76. It is unlikely that if you did this exercise without actually flipping a coin, you would come up with seven straight heads or tails. This mentality leads gamblers down a dangerous path. When betting on sports against the spread, we have approximately a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of losing that bet. If that is the case, our betting's actual results will look very similar to the chart above for random coin flips.&nbsp;As a sports bettor, I view everything through a statistical lens. When I am watching a game, I am just watching numbers. Thinking about a game the way you think about the probability of picking a white or red marble out of a bag or the simple toss of a coin takes a bit of the fun away. But in actuality, that is all sports betting is. We figure out the probability of an outcome and then look for offers from sportsbooks that give us a profitable return if our prediction on the result is correct. In simple terms, if someone was willing to pay you $0.55 every time you flipped heads and you owe them $0.45 every time you flip tails, you would take that back all day long.Some of you may be thinking, well, it's different in sports because I'm studying the games, I know all the statistics, I know the trends, so I have a bit more of a say in my bet outcome. That can be true, but the best professionals out there pick between 55% to 60% against the spread, with 60% being extremely high. Let's assume that you predict sporting events against the spread at a 55% rate. That is still very close to a coin flip on every game. Your distribution is always going to look very similar to that of the coin flip example above. You should have a few more runs of seven straight wins than you will seven straight losses, but not by a significant amount.Now that we understand that our perception is not the reality of coin flips, how can we use this to help us in sports betting? This won't make you a better handicapper, but it should help you steer clear of one of the more dangerous betting strategies I often encounter. First, let's go back and look at the chart on coin flips above. Let's assume that tails are wins and heads are losses on your NBA picks against the spread. On your first ten picks, you went 4 - 6. That is not unusual. I'm sure every one of us has had similar results over a random ten-game sample. Over the next ten games, you win six and lose 4, bringing you right up to our predicted 50% win rate.We look at the next ten, and we stay hot, winning six out of four yet again. In fact, over the first 69 games, we went 35 of them, so we are one game over .500. During the 69 games, we saw some cold streaks and some hot streaks. Games 38-42 were extremely cold, but we followed it up from games 43-47 with a series of wins to make up for it. We now get to play 70. It is a loss. Game 71 is also a loss; in fact, we continue to lose games 72 and 73. You have seen these kinds of losing streaks before, and you know they will turn around. You want to get ahead of this and start increasing your bets. Game 74, you double up, but you lose. Game 75, you double up your game 74 bets and lose. Games 76, you double up again, now risking eight times what you usually risk and lose. You have now had what a very predictable losing streak is, and instead of losing seven units, you are down 18 units.If you indeed doubled up again, risking 16 units, you would have won the next bet, but how many of us are going to continue risking that amount? What streaks like this typically do is either destroy our bankroll or destroy our psychological makeup. And in most cases, it does both. If we look at all 100 tosses, we would have lost 53 times while winning 47 times. This kind of outcome over 100 games for someone who picks about 50% is not unlikely. After those 100 games, a gambler not fooled by the gambler's fallacy would be down but certainly not out. Perhaps in the next 100 games, the bettor would win 53 times.Start viewing your sports betting as nothing more than numbers, and statistics take the emotion out of it. In doing so, you will be more profitable over the long haul.<a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Join our free discord to learn more about sports betting and get some free picks</a>

Sports Betting Psychology

How Can The Gamblers Fallacy Make You Money In Sports Betting - Sports Betting Psychology Series Lesson 1

The herd mentality plagues sports bettors. As humans, most of us are scared to go out on a limb. It is much easier to be wrong in a group than it is to be wrong on your own. In this lesson we look at the herd mentality, wisdom of the crowds, and when it is smart to go against that thinking.<a href="https://youtu.be/HlEo7DOOQNw" title="">It is helpful to watch the video on Gamblers Fallacy to understand more about the psychology of Sports Betting</a><a href="https://youtu.be/HlEo7DOOQNw%E2%9C%85" title=""></a><a href="https://discord.gg/DBXUfS9JWq" title="">Join our free discord to learn more about sports betting and get some free picks</a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqa3FOQ2ltWjVuRlVIVEdpSTI5SktkLTRtQVVHd3xBQ3Jtc0ttT0RET0FUZi1faHhaUGdjTU43bDFWMmIxTGVXUnhjaXI4WTBMVDJ5UWlnazB2d28xc1FER3VKenZ1WEZ5a0ptOE1tWXBfc0lSQ0xSR0ZIM05zQ0hycDNvdWxzVVg5bk9XWUItbFJZbThPeUw2SFVXaw&q=https%3A%2F%2Fdiscord.gg%2FDBXUfS9JWq%E2%9C%85" title=""></a>

Betting Psychology 

The Herd Mentality And How To Be Contrarian | Sports Betting Psychology Series Lesson 2

Both of these concepts can be a viable strategy. I will go over what each of them are and the benefits to both.

How Can A Bettor Use Line Movements To Make Sharper Bets?

John Alesia

How Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling in the Sharp App are Helping Sports Bettors

John Alesia

How To Use Pythagorean Win Expectations

John Alesia

What is Value Betting in Sports?

John Alesia

Can Betting Against Your Prop Projection Be Right?

John Alesia

NFL Playoff Strategies and Tips To Win Your Pool | Scratchin and Survivn with Statsational

John Alesia

How to bet against the "Spread" - Beginner Level Lesson 1

John Alesia

Moneyline Bet Explained - Beginner Level Lesson 2

John Alesia

Bankroll Management - Beginner Level Lesson 3

John Alesia

Sports Betting Tips and Strategies - Beginner Level Lesson 4

John Alesia

How To Bet On Totals and Over Unders - Beginner Level Lesson 5

John Alesia

How to bet Teasers - Beginner Level Lesson 6

John Alesia

Sports Betting a 3-Way Line Explained - Beginner Level Lesson 7

John Alesia

How To Bet Parlays - Beginner Level Lesson 9

John Alesia

What Are Futures Bets? - Beginner Level Lesson 8

John Alesia

What is Expected Value - Intermediate Level Lesson 1

John Alesia

Flat vs Variable Bet Sizing - Intermediate Level Lesson 2

John Alesia

What is Middling? - Intermediate Level Lesson 3

John Alesia

To Hedge Or Not To Hedge? - Intermediate Level Lesson 4

John Alesia

What Is Hold? - Intermediate Level Lesson 5

John Alesia

How To Use Future Value Of Money In Your Handicapping | Intermediate Level Lesson 6

John Alesia

Gambler's Fallacy and Your Bankroll

Adam Strangis

How to Find The Most Profitable Props in NBA and More - Advanced Lesson 2

John Alesia

Make Money Building A Simple Sports Betting Model | Linear Regression Advanced Lesson 3

John Alesia

Create Your Own Lines - Advanced Level Lesson 4

John Alesia

Calculating Props In Sports Betting - Poisson Distribution - Advanced Level Lesson 1

John Alesia

How Can The Gamblers Fallacy Make You Money In Sports Betting - Sports Betting Psychology Series Lesson 1

John Alesia

The Herd Mentality And How To Be Contrarian | Sports Betting Psychology Series Lesson 2

John Alesia

Flat Betting vs Variable Bet Sizing

John Alesia

Sportsbook Reviews