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WGC Dell Match Play Betting Preview

16 groups? 16 chances to win!
Josh Thomas

Welcome to one of my favorite betting weeks of the year! The WGC Dell Match Play Championship!

The Match Play is played at Austin Country Club and features 64 of the best golfers in the world competing in a March Madness style tournament in match play format. Each golfer is placed in a pod of 4 golfers and plays each golfer once in an 18 hole match. The golfer with the most points at the conclusion of the round robin advances to the Sweet 16 where the pod winners match up against each other in a single elimination tournament to crown a champion.

The format is fun, but finding the overall winner is a bit tricky given the enhanced variance associated with the tournament. Whats a little easier though is betting the pods themselves and finding a winner out of only 4 guys instead of 64 and there's opportunity for MEGA profit with that!

Before we get to the pods, let's take a little bit of a deeper dive into the course these guys will be playing this week!

The Course:

Austin Country Club - Austin, Texas

Par: 35-36—71
Yardage: 7,108
Stimpmeter: 12

Architect (year): Larry Packard (1971)

Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 110
Number of Water Hazards: 5
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 7

Architect (year): Pete Dye (1984)
Renovation Architect (year): Rod Whitman (2015)
2015 – Rebuild of greens and tees, re-grassing of
fairways and addition of 8 bunkers and 2 irrigation ponds.
2019 – Full course bunker renovation, re-grassing of tees.

Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass overseeded
with Poa trivialis .100”
Tees: Zeon zoysiagrass .375”
Fairways: Tifway 419 bermuda overseeded
with perennial ryegrass/fescue blend .400”
Rough: Tifway 419 bermudagrass 2”


Recent Winners:

  • 2021: Billy Horschel OV Scottie Scheffler

  • 2020: Canceled due to COVID-19

  • 2019: Kevin Kisner OV Matt Kuchar

  • 2018: Bubba Watson OV Kevin Kisner

  • 2017: Dustin Johnson OV Jon Rahm

Short course. Driveable Par 4's. Low easy to hit out of rough. Enough water to make things Interesting. Austin Country Club is an ELITE venue for Match Play and makes for some really exciting golf!

Let's take a look at each of the groups and I'll share my favorite bets from each!

Group 1:

Jon Rahm +130
Cameron Young +275
Patrick Reed +300
Sebastian Munoz +320

This is Rahm's group to lose obviously but I wouldn't sleep on a young birdie maker like Cameron Young or even Sebastian Munoz who can ball strike with the best of them and took Rahm to the brink here last year losing on the 18th hole.

Favorite Bet: Jon Rahm +130 (Bet $100 to win $130 Draftkings)

Group 2:

Collin Morikawa +200
Sergio Garcia +240
Robert Macintyre +275
Jason Kokrak +300

Morikawa is the favorite here but not by as much as Rahm given how poorly he played last week and his struggles at this event last year. Sergio has had great success here over the years but his form is lacking too.

Bobby Mac is my boy, big hitting lefty who isn't afraid to go after some of these pins or try to drive the green on the short par 4's. Love the value on him in this group.


Favorite Bet: Robert Macintyre +275 (Bet $100 to win $275 Draftkings)

Group 3:

Viktor Hovland +165
Will Zalatoris +200
Cameron Tringale +330
Sepp Straka +400

Hovland and Will Z should smash this group but there is a ton of odds value with Straka and Tringale making them really intriguing. Hovland wasn't great last week so I think the safe bet here is Willy Z at +200 to come out of this group but my favorite bet is actually Sepp just due to the massive value.


Favorite Bet: Sepp Straka +400 (Bet $100 to win $400 Draftkings)

Group 4:

Patrick Cantlay +165
Sungjae Im +260
Keith Mitchell +300
Seamus Power +330

Cantlay should be -130 here. Just a massive favorite in this group. Elite match play record. Decent history at ACC. Lock and load.

Favorite Bet: Patrick Cantlay +165 (Bet $100 to win $165 Draftkings)

Group 5:

Scottie Scheffler +200
Matt Fitzpatrick +250
Tommy Fleetwood +275
Ian Poulter +300

Group 5 is the group of death. All four of these guys are really good players, great course fits, and elite match play players. That being said if someone is going to give me +300 on the best match play player ever I think you gotta take it.

Favorite Bet: Ian Poulter +300 (Bet $100 to win $300 Draftkings)

Group 6:

Justin Thomas +165
Marc Leishman +240
Kevin Kisner +260
Luke List +400

JT is absolutely rolling right now and is rightfully the favorite in this group but he got a really tough draw with Kis and Leishman. In DFS I'm smashing Leishman here at his price but Kiz has made the final here twice and is +260 to take down this group. Love that bet.

Favorite Bet: Kevin Kisner +260 (Bet $100 to win $260 Draftkings)

Group 7:

Xander Schauffele +125
Tony Finau +260
Lucas Herbert +300
Takumi Kanaya +350

This is the worst group in the entire tournament. Xander got lucky with an out of form Finau and two duds in Herbert and Kanaya. He should be -200 here. Take the value.

Favorite Bet: Xander Schauffele +125 (Bet $100 to win $125 Draftkings)

Group 8:

Dustin Johnson +165
Max Homa +230
Mackenzie Hughes +300
Matthew Wolff +400

Another really strong group here. DJ playing well, Homa great history here, but the guy that I want to bet in this group is Mack Hughes. Guy is just outstanding with the putter and has made it out of his group here before. A hot putter makes a HUGE difference this week. If he's dropping 12-15 footers watch out.

Favorite Bet: Mackenzie Hughes +300 (Bet $100 to win $300 Draftkings)

Group 9:

Bryson DeChambeau +220
Talor Gooch +225
Lee Westwood +240
Richard Bland +350

Give me +220 on big daddy Bryson to win this group a year ago I'm putting my house on it. Now though coming off a wrist injury and not having played in forever I'm out. Gooch is my boy, elite putter, scores like crazy and should have no problem dusting the two AARP members in this group.

Favorite Bet: Talor Gooch +225 (Bet $100 to win $225 Draftkings)

Group 10:

Louis Oosthuizen +200
Paul Casey +225
Alex Noren +275
Corey Conners +300

Oof, another group of death here. 4 really strong players, all playing well right now. Louis at +200 is intriguing but really this whole group is probably a no bet for me. Forced to take someone I'd just go with my boy Alex Noren who can heat up with the putter and is trending in the right direction.

Favorite Bet: Alex Noren +275 (Bet $100 to win $275 Draftkings)

Group 11:

Jordan Spieth +210
Adam Scott +230
Justin Rose +270
Keegan Bradley +300

Spieth's match play record is pretty meh, but he did win his group here last year. Adam Scott is making his debut at ACC. Rose is super volatile. Bradley has been playing really well (minus a MC last week) but his match play record is atrocious. Spieth or Scott for me this week.

Favorite Bet: Jordan Spieth +210 (Bet $100 to win $210 Draftkings)

Group 12:

Billy Horschel +175
Tom Hoge +250
Thomas Pieters +250
Min Woo Lee +400

Horschel is the defending champion and playing well but I love Hollywood Hoge this week. Guy has been absolutely rolling. Loves firing at pins. Great course fit. Makes a ton of birdies. Texas guy.

Favorite Bet: Tom Hoge +250 (Bet $100 to win $250 Draftkings)

Group 13:

Daniel Berger +210
Tyrrell Hatton +225
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +275
Si Woo Kim +300

Really hard group to handicap. Comes down to Berger and Hatton for me. Berger can get so freaking hot it's hard for me to not bet him here at these odds. Si Woo Kim could go nuts but that's such a risky bet.

Favorite Bet: Daniel Berger +210 (Bet $100 to win $210 Draftkings)

Group 14:

Russell Henley +220
Joaquin Niemann +240
Kevin Na +280
Maverick McNealy +290

Weird to me that Henley is a bigger favorite than Niemann here. Henley is an elite ballstriker and can't putt so maybe the books are thinking he will get some conceded putts? I don't know. Strong value on both Niemann and Na who actually are good putters.

Favorite Bet: Joaquin Niemann +240 (Bet $100 to win $240 Draftkings)

Group 15:

Abraham Ancer +230
Bubba Watson +250
Webb Simpson +300
Brian Harman +300

Watson's history here is fantastic but if you are going to give me +300 on a lefty who has been crushing lately I gotta take it.

Favorite Bet: Brian Harman +300 (Bet $100 to win $300 Draftkings)

Group 16:

Shane Lowry +220
Brooks Koepka +220
Erik Van Rooyen +275
Harold Varner III +300

Love Lowry and Koepka here and I actually might end up betting both. Lowry has been playing better but Koepka is Koepka and he's starting to trend in the right direction with his game. If you wanna take a long shot I don't think HV3 is the worst play either.

Favorite Bet: Brooks Kopeka +220 (Bet $100 to win $220 Draftkings)

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