Valero Texas Open Betting Preview

After a week of craziness with the Dell Match Play we are back to normal with one more event before the first major of the year, The Masters! This week, the players tee it up at TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. Jordan Spieth will look to defend his title and get some momentum as heads to Augusta, while others will look to punch their ticket to the exclusive event with a win here!

Let's take a little bit of a deeper dive into the course before we get to the field and my bets for the week!

The Oaks course at TPC San Antonio plays to a par 72 and is fairly long. Poa overseed on Bermuda greens which is a bit rare in Texas but keeps them to tour standard at this time of year. Because of the Poa they only run at 11 on the stimpmeter which makes them fairly slow.

We've seen bad putters do well here over the years because of the slow bumpy greens sort of leveling the playing field.

Despite the winning score being -16, we've seen the average score here still be over par which is interesting. It seems like every years a few guys get hot and everyone else sort of plods along.

With 18% of approach shots coming from 250 yards plus away from the pin, being good with your long irons is absolutely key here. Hitting the fairway isn't incredibly important witht he rough length being pretty short, but you don't want to miss to far left or right or you will end up in the trees/bushes and bring in the possibility of a huge number (just ask Kevin Na who once made a 16 here).

If we look for a trend from former winners here it's clear to see that getting it done tee to green is vitally important. We don't see players really come here and only putt well and still be in contention. You have to be able to get it there tee to green, and you also need to be pretty good around the greens given that players only hit 61% of greens in regulation on average at this event.

Let's take a look at the favorites at the top of the betting board for this week:

The Favorites

Rory McIlroy +700 (Bet $100 to win $700 Fanduel)

Rory could boat race the field here if he's on. The big question is whether he is actually invested in playing well here or if he's looking forward to Augusta. Normally, my thought process is that if a guy is teeing it up he's invested but as of Tuesday, Rory hadn't even been to the course yet as he was playing a practice round at Augusta.

No bet for me on Rory this week unless the odds drop significantly after his first round and he shows signs of striking it well.

Jordan Spieth+1100 (Bet $100 to win $1100 Fanduel)

Spieth is the defending champ here and playing some decent golf right now. This is a great course set up for him and I don't think he should have any problem being back in the mix for a win.

Personally the odds are a little short for me, but I wouldn't fault you for grabbing Spieth and riding the Texan at what equates to almost a home event for him.

Weekly Bets

+5000 or better:

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 Draftkings (Bet $100 to win $2800 Draftkings )

365 days ago the idea of getting this sort of number on Bryson was comical. That was before the wrist injury set him back though. Last week he worked out some the kinks and didn't look that bad considering how long it's been since he's played. I think there's reason to be cautious with him here and I won't play him in DFS but this sort of number on a player of his caliber is outrageous, he can win here with his B game and I'm willing to take my chances that he brings that this week.

Longshots:

Luke List +6000 Draftkings (Bet $100 to win $6000 Draftkings)

When we talk about the mold of player that plays well here, it's a guy who is great with his long irons, can drive the ball well, and can heat up with the putter at times. One of the first players to come to mind when breaking it down like that is Luke List.

List is an elite ballstriker who got on the bad side of the draw at the Players. He's won once already this year on a similar course and should have no problem putting on these slow bumpy poa greens. Love the upside at these odds.

Lucas Glover +13000 (Bet $100 to win $13000 Draftkings )

Don't know who Glover pissed off at Draftkings but this is a complete misprice and one that we're forced to take advantage of. +8000 on Fanduel. Just a ton of value. 4th here last year and 14th in 2019.

He's never going to putt well but if he can just be even with the putter this week he'll contend for the win with his strong ballstriking and Par 5 scoring prowess. Solid value bet this week, and I'm interested in any of the place bets (T10, T20) on him too!

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