Statsational PGA Players Championship WIn Bets

This week we head to Ponte Vedra, Florida for The Players "this is not a major no matter how many people want it to be" Championship. Only one course deserves to have a major held there every year, Augusta National. I, for one, am tired of pundits trying to push this as a major championship.

TPC Sawgrass is the venue. You have all seen the ominous par 3 17th hole on television. The hole is 137 yards to a rock-hard island green. The fun of the hole is to watch professional golfers hit balls in the water. I think the hole is a bit gimmicky, as are a lot of Pete Dye creations. Last year 66 balls went in the water, and 80 birdies were made. With the weather looking pretty bad this week, we could see even more balls in the water than that this year. However, they will be changing the pin placements to try not to let the tournament get out of hand.

Pete Dye golf courses are often synonymous with "target" golf. Dye designed golf courses to be played his way or no way. You have a spot to hit to and you are rewarded. Miss that spot and you can find yourself in all sorts of trouble.

The weather might be the biggest factor this week. Because we have a high risk of rain delays both Thursday and Friday, it becomes difficult to predict which flight will have the easier go at it. I have been holding off on bets and DFS until I get as much weather info as possible. In DFS, you could possibly do some AM stacks and PM stacks if you are mme. I do not think anything becomes much clearer as we get closer to tomorrow AM so I am ready to pull the trigger tonight on these.

Read below taken from the PGA Tour website
Since the tournament moved to March ball striking has become even more important than it was before. You always want good ball strikers at a Dye course because of that target golf element. With the cooler windy weather in March that has become even more prominent. Players who have finished in the top 10 at THE PLAYERS in May since 2004 have averaged +1.80 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round. That number leaps to +2.04 per round for players in March. The largest gap between the two months comes in performance off the tee: top-10 finishers in March average +0.49 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee per round, while in May it’s just +0.35.

The five PLAYERS champions in March since 2004 gained 45% more strokes off-the-tee per round than the 12 winners in May did. In terms of Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, the number is staggering: the five March champs in that span averaged +2.89 per round. The dozen in May averaged significantly less, just +1.76. Meanwhile, the winners in May gained +0.42 more strokes putting per round – a gulf equivalent to the season-long difference in 2021 between 1st and 44th place.

So we want ball-strikers this week. It never hurts to knock a putt in, but ball striking is going to be key.

Bets to win the championship