Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022


Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks faceoff against Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. The Lions enter the game as a favorite (-170) as the home team. Detroit is currently favored by -3.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 48.5.

Seattle's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #3 in the league with 4.84 yards per carry. This is all the more impressive because they've faced a stacked box the #4-most of any team in the league at 11.5%. Even with an extra tackler near the line of scrimmage, the Seahawks have still thrived on the ground. This represents a particular advantage for Seattle given that the Lions have struggled so much to stop the run this year, allowing 4.87 yards per carry (#6-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Seahawks have ranked #30 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 264 yards per game through the air against them (#30 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #6 with 4.16 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their defensive tackles, which rank #1 in the league in terms of stopping the run. Seattle has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 59 yards per game (#1-worst).

Detroit's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #3 in football at 5.35 yards per carry. This presents a decided advantage for Detroit given that the Seahawks haven't had much success in stopping the run this year, giving up 4.16 yards per carry (#27-worst in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Lions check in at #28 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 243 yards per game against Detroit this year (#24 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #27 against them with 4.87 yards per ground attempt. Detroit's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 59 yards per game (#4-worst in the league).

Seattle Seahawks Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Rashaad Penny to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this week (51.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.7% in games he has played).

  • The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles grade out as the best DT corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

  • The Sharp Model projects DK Metcalf to accumulate 0.50 receiving touchdowns this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among WRs.

Detroit Lions Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.64 seconds per snap.

  • Jared Goff's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.2% to 57.2%.

  • The Detroit Lions pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.75 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

Betting Trends

  • The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 59% ROI)

  • The Seattle Seahawks have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 63% ROI)

  • Jamaal Williams has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)