New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022

Editor

The New York Jets come in as 6.5 point road underdog as they travel to FirstEnergy Stadium to play the Cleveland Browns. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 16 in 2020. That game resulted in a road win for the Jets with a final score of 23-16.

Cleveland's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 399 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #1 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #1-most yards per carry: 4.99. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #32 spot in terms of yards per target (8.82). Not to rub salt in the wound, but Cleveland has had these struggles despite stacking the box with an extra defender 22% of the time -- #3-most of any team in football. You'd think that would at least put a band-aid on the issue, but to this point it doesn't seem to be working very well. Browns linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #1-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Browns check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 244 yards per game (#16 in football). Their run game has ranked #20 with 4.12 yards per attempt on the ground.

New York's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 399 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #1-most yards per carry: 4.99. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #1-worst in yards per target (8.82). What makes New York's issues all the more troublesome is that they've struggled in spite of stacking the box with an extra defender 22% of the time -- #3-most of any team in football. The Jets linebackers have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #1-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Jets have ranked #22 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 244 yards per game (#16 in football). On the ground they've ranked #20 with 4.12 yards per carry.

New York Jets Insights

  • The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

  • Joe Flacco's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, notching a mere 5.80 yards-per-target vs a 8.20 figure last year.

  • THE BLITZ projects Joe Flacco to pass for 1.09 TDs in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.

Cleveland Browns Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (16.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.7% in games he has played).

  • Amari Cooper has accumulated a whopping 78.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among wideouts.

  • The Cleveland Browns pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.08 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in football.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Jets have scored last in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.75 Units / 23% ROI)

  • Donovan Peoples-Jones has hit the Receptions Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.65 Units / 94% ROI)