Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Preview - September 29th, 2022


Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins faceoff against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals enter the game as a favorite (-190) as the home team. Cincinnati is currently favored by -3.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 48.5.

Miami's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #26 in the league with a mere 309 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #3-worst in football with just 3.5 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Miami's o-line ranks #2-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, Miami has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.58 yards per target, which ranks them #25 in football. This represents a particular disadvantage for Miami given that the Bengals have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 4.26 yards per carry (#10-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #19 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 241 yards per game through the air against them (#22 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #22 with 4.67 yards per carry. Miami has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 31 yards per game (#7-best). Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 80.5% completion rate (#3-highest).

Cincinnati's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 3.04 yards per carry. This presents a decided disadvantage for Cincinnati given that the Dolphins run defense has thrived this year, allowing a mere 4.67 yards per carry (good for #22-best in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Bengals check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 252 yards per game against Cincinnati this year (#26 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #10 against them with 4.26 yards per ground attempt. This Bengals defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, allowing them to complete just 58.4% of their passes (#2-lowest in the league). Cincinnati's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 61 yards per game (#2-worst in the league).

Miami Dolphins Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

  • The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Cincinnati Bengals Insights

  • The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

  • Joe Burrow's passing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 69.6% to 66.3%.

  • The Sharp Model projects Joe Mixon to rush for 0.76 TDs in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Betting Trends

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+1.60 Units / 7% ROI)

  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+14.70 Units / 72% ROI)

  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 6 away games (+6.05 Units / 79% ROI)