Lions vs Bears Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 10th, 2023

a year ago

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In a divisional showdown, the Detroit Lions (9-3) will clash with the Chicago Bears (4-8) at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. This game holds additional significance due to the longstanding rivalry between these two teams, adding extra motivation for both sides to secure a victory.

The Lions enter the game with a stellar record of 9-3, exceeding expectations and having a great season overall. They have played exceptional football lately, winning eight of their last ten games. In their previous outing, the Lions secured a victory over the New Orleans Saints with a final score of 33-28.

On the other hand, the Bears have had a challenging season, currently standing at 4-8. They have struggled in recent games, losing six out of their last ten matchups. However, in their last game, they managed to secure a narrow 12-10 victory over the Minnesota Vikings.

Looking at the rest situation, the Lions will be playing on normal rest, which may provide them with an advantage, as they are more rested than their opponent. Meanwhile, the Bears are coming off a bye week, giving them extra time to gameplan for this matchup, having enjoyed 13 days of rest between their games.

Historically, the Lions have had the upper hand in their recent encounter with the Bears. In their last meeting during Week 11 in 2023, the Lions secured a road win with a final score of 31-26.

Despite playing on the road, the Lions enter the game as slight favorites. The spread currently sits at Lions -3.0, with the initial opening line at Lions -3.0 before some bettors adjusted it. The moneyline odds for the Lions stand at -165, indicating an implied win probability of 60%. In contrast, the Bears are slight underdogs with a moneyline of +145, suggesting an implied win probability of 40%.

As the game approaches, fans and bettors alike are eagerly anticipating this divisional clash between the Lions and the Bears. With both teams motivated to secure a victory, this matchup promises to be an intense battle on the field. The Lions will aim to continue their success, while the Bears will look to turn their season around with a statement win at home.

Lions Insights

Our trusted projections expect Craig Reynolds to be a much smaller piece of his offense's ground game in this game (0.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.2% in games he has played).
As it relates to safeties getting after the quarterback, Chicago's safety corps has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.
The predictive model expects David Montgomery to rush for 0.63 touchdowns this week, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Bears Insights

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see only 124.2 total plays called: the fewest among all games this week.
Justin Fields has thrown for a lot more adjusted yards per game (190.0) this season than he did last season (149.0).
This year, the stout Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a measly 2.8 YAC.

Betting Trends

The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Justin Fields has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 31% ROI)