Las Vegas Raiders vs Tennessee Titans Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

Editor

The Tennessee Titans come in as 2.0 point home underdog as they play the Las Vegas Raiders at Nissan Stadium Sunday. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The Titans won by double digits at home, outscoring the Raiders 42-21 in Week 14 of 2019.

Tennessee's primary advantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a scant 4.3 yards per attempt on the ground -- #8-best in the NFL. Tennessee gets full marks because they haven't even sold out to stop the run the way many teams do. They've played with the standard seven men in the box 10.1% of the time this year. While many teams bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage to stop the run, the Titans have employed this tactic the #4-least in football. This Titans run defense has been aided by their safeties, who grade out as the #5-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Titans check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 234 yards per game (#18 in football). Their run game has ranked #18 with 4.19 yards per attempt on the ground.

Las Vegas's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #7 in the league while allowing just 325 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #6-least yards per game: 212. That's not to take anything away from their run defense, though, which checks in at #7 in yards per carry (4.23). The Raiders have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 126 yards per game (#3-best). Las Vegas's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive ends, which check in as the #4-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Raiders have ranked #9 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 289 yards per game (#7 in football). On the ground they've ranked #21 with 4.08 yards per carry.

Las Vegas Raiders Insights

  • The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

  • The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends project as the 4th-best group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

  • The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 9.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.

Tennessee Titans Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Dontrell Hilliard to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (6.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.2% in games he has played).

  • Ryan Tannehill's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.5% to 59.5%.

  • The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)

  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+4.15 Units / 47% ROI)

  • Derek Carr has hit the Interceptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 38% ROI)